中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网11月30日消息称，今年冬天，欧洲的能源危机将严重影响全球，但与明年相比，这根本不算什么。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)最近发布的年度旗舰报告《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)描绘了一幅未来数月甚至数年的严峻图景，因为世界正在努力应对一场我们从未见过的全球性危机。
国际能源署(IEA)在其年度能源展望中宣称，我们正处于“前所未有的深度和复杂性的全球能源危机”中，“不会回到疫情和地缘政治冲突重组全球能源贸易之前的状态”。 这将是一个艰难的冬天，美国和欧洲的能源价格将上涨到令人痛苦的高位。预测显示，仅在英国，预计今年冬天将有2600万人陷入能源贫困——这一数字相当于三分之一的家庭。英国的情况可能会比许多其他欧洲国家好得多。但我们正在经历的这个冬天的紧缩只会让接下来的冬天更加艰难。
我们现在正在经历的能源危机很快就会变成一场方方面面的危机。目前，天然气价格高企导致化肥短缺，明年将转化为粮食短缺，因为我们可能会损失全球近2%的玉米、小麦、水稻和大豆产量。此外，能源价格高企已导致从汽车到医药等众多行业出现严重的供应链和制造问题，其影响需要一段时间才能传导到消费者身上。
全球市场上石油和天然气供应的严重减少将影响未来几年的全球经济。经合组织预计，2022年全球经济增长将“显著放缓”，降至2.2%，然后“在2024年略有反弹”，至2.7%左右。但与对美国经济的预期相比，这种放缓微不足道。到目前为止，由于美国是一个能源净出口国，美国一直相对不受地缘政治冲突的金融影响。但这一切即将改变。经合组织预计，美国经济今年将增长1.8%(相比之下，全球经济将增长2.2%)，明年仅增长0.5%——这是一个惨淡的增长率——然后在2024年略微复苏，实现1%的增长。
随着我们进入2023年，我们不再有一个清晰的战略来保证全球供应链的平稳运行，并控制能源市场。虽然有很多预测，但很明显，我们正处于未知的领域，这些预测应该持保留态度。就连顶级经济专家也对复杂且相互矛盾的指标感到困惑，这些指标搅乱了通常相对固定的前景。所有这些都表明，很难准确预测未来几年的情况。唯一明确的共识是，无论它是什么，几乎肯定不会是好事。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
OECD: Energy Crisis Weighing Heavily>The energy crisis in Europe is going to hit hard around the world this winter – but it will be nothing compared to next year. The recently released World Economic Outlook, the flagship annual report from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) paints a grim picture for the months and years to come as the world grapples with an unfolding global crisis the likes of which we’ve never seen.
In its own annual energy outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA), not known for sensationalizing, proclaimed that we’re in the midst of a “global energy crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity,” and that “there is no going back to the way things were” before Covid-19 and the war restructured the global energy trade. It’s going to be a tough winter, with energy prices rising painfully high for consumers across the United States and Europe. Projections show that in the UK alone, 26 million people are expected to fall into energy poverty over the course of this winter – a number that amounts to>The energy crisis we’re experiencing now will soon turn into an everything crisis. High natural gas prices now have led to a fertilizer shortage that will turn into a food shortage next year as we potentially stand to lose nearly 2 percent of global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production. And high energy prices have led to serious supply chain and manufacturing issues in an untold number of sectors, from automobiles to medicines, the impact of which will take a while to reach the consumer.
The severe reduction of Russian oil and gas supply>As we head into 2023, there’s no longer a clear strategy to make global supply chains run smoothly and keep energy markets in check. While predictions abound, it’s also abundantly clear that we’re in uncharted territory, and these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. Even top-level economic experts are confused about the complex and contradictory indicators muddying outlooks that are typically relatively cut and dry. All of this is to say that it’s hard to predict exactly what the next few years will hold. The only clear consensus is that whatever it is, it almost certainly won’t be good.
