全球能源行业正处于重大转型的风口浪尖
由于供应链从化石燃料转向对可再生能源基础设施和电动汽车电池至关重要的稀土矿物，地缘政治将发生重大变化
世界经济论坛报告称，“由于能源安全的重要性日益提高，以及加强供应链的必要性，我们需要的能源投资将达到2007年以来从未有过的水平”
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网11月17日报道，全球能源行业正处于一个转折点。 疫情大流行对全球经济造成前所未有的冲击，再加上爆发地缘政治冲突，全球经济受到了严重破坏，迫使世界各国重新考虑其能源政策和能源安全战略，为真正的清洁能源转型打开了一扇窗口，而无需面对这样的革命通常面临的惰性。
国际能源署(IEA)近日有史以来第一次发布了一项预测，称在可预见的未来，所有化石燃料的使用要么停滞不前，要么下降。事实上，国际能源署预计，全球对化石燃料的需求可能在本十年内开始达到峰值，与早先的预测相比，这是一个巨大的发展。然而，只有一些人同意这种观点。欧佩克认为，相反，由于世界各国将能源安全置于气候承诺之上，石油峰值将比预期的更晚出现。
这种不确定性似乎已成为一种新常态，因为即使是经验最丰富、最受尊敬的金融和经济机构也需要帮助来判断风向。由“3C”(Covid-19、气候变化和冲突)引发的无数市场冲击使当前的全球经济陷入混乱，抛出了各种混杂的信息和相互矛盾的指标，使预测过程异常模糊。知道自己正处在十字路口，但当看不清路的去向时，就很难知道该走哪条路。
考虑到所有这些日益增加的复杂性，世界经济论坛认为，能源行业的未来将由8个关键因素表征和塑造：1. 政策制定；2. 新能源安全挑战；3. 缺乏能源效率措施；4. 脱碳成本较高；5. 政府投资和通货膨胀；6. 能源价格波动性增大；7. 能源供应不足；8. 发展中国家能源获取不足。记住这8个新的“现实”将是私营和公共部门制定新战略的关键，以便“在日益复杂的环境中制定新的战略来实现关键的能源目标”。
波动将是能源转型不可避免的一部分。由于供应链从化石燃料转向对可再生能源基础设施和电动汽车电池至关重要的稀土矿物，地缘政治将发生重大变化。对这些投入的竞争加剧也会大幅提高其价格，导致所谓的“绿色通胀”。
事实上，脱碳将是昂贵的，政府投资是必不可少的，发展中国家的主要气候融资计划也是如此。 到目前为止，支出远低于确保未来能源充足所需的水平。世界经济论坛的报告称：“由于能源安全的重要性日益增加，以及加强供应链的必要性，我们需要的能源投资将达到2007年以来从未有过的水平。全球能源转型将面临当前支出与2030年需求之间22万亿美元的缺口。”
这些资金短缺可能会导致能源供应不足(特别是在全球南部地区)和能源价格持续波动，这是因为能源需求继续增长，而同时也在远离化石燃料。专家表示，为了将供需差距保持在最低水平，能源效率标准将是关键，但不太可能充分发挥其潜力。
因此，政策将是未来帮助管理所有这些因素、让世界走上正轨并对其脱碳承诺负责的关键。显然，这并不容易，如果没有足够的政策措施和执行手段，能源转型的难度、波动性和费用将迫使经济重新转向化石燃料。这是一条艰难的脱碳之路，但与其他选择相比，它绝对是最好的最坏选择。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The Global Energy Transition Has A $22 Trillion Problem
· The global energy industry is>· Geopolitics will shift considerably as supply chains shift away from fossil fuels and toward rare earth minerals essential to renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicle batteries.
· “The growing importance of energy security and the need to bolster supply chains will require a level of energy investment not seen since 2007,” the World Economic Forum reports.
The global energy industry is at a turning point. Unprecedented shocks to the global economy stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic and compounded exponentially by war have caused massive disruption to the global economy and forced nations around the world to rethink their energy policies and energy security strategies, opening a window for a genuine clean energy transition without the usual inertia faced by such a revolution.
For the first time ever, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a projection in which all fossil fuels either plateau or drop in the foreseeable future. In fact, the IEA projects that global demand for fossil fuels could begin to peak within this decade, a huge development compared to earlier forecasts. However,>This kind of uncertainty seems to be the new normal as even the most seasoned and respected financial and economic institutions need help judging which way the wind is blowing. Thrown into disarray by the myriad market shocks rising from the “three Cs” – Covid-19, climate change, and conflict – the current economy is throwing out all kinds of mixed messages and contradictory indicators making projection processes unusually murky. We know that we’re at a crossroads, but it’s hard to know what road to take when we can’t quite see where those roads are going.
With all of this increasing complexity in mind, the World Economic Forum argues that the future of the energy industry will be characterized and shaped by eight key factors: 1. Policy-making; 2. New energy security challenges; 3. A shortage of energy efficiency measures; 4. Higher decarbonization costs; 5. Government investment and inflation; 6. Greater energy price volatility; 7. Insufficient energy supply; and 8. Inadequate energy access in developing countries. Keeping these eight new “realities” in mind will be key for new strategies in the private and public sectors to “develop new strategies to meet critical energy goals in an ever-more complex environment.”
Volatility will be an unavoidable part of the energy transition. Geopolitics will shift considerably as supply chains shift away from fossil fuels and toward rare earth minerals essential to renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicle batteries. China controls the vast majority of many of these minerals, posing new threats to energy security. Increased competition over these inputs could also raise their prices considerably, leading to what is being called “greenflation.”
Indeed, decarbonization will be expensive, and government investment will be essential, as will major climate financing schemes for the developing world. So far, expenditures are way below where they need to be to ensure sufficient energy for the future. “The growing importance of energy security and the need to bolster supply chains will require a level of energy investment not seen since 2007,” the World Economic Forum reports. New technologies also suffer from a $22 trillion gap between current spending and 2030 needs.
These financing shortfalls will likely lead to insufficient energy supply (particularly in the global south) and continued energy price volatility as energy demand continues to grow while we simultaneously move away from fossil fuels. In order to keep the gap between supply and demand to a minimum, energy efficiency standards will be key, but are unlikely to be utilized to their full potential according to experts.
Policy will therefore be key going forward to help manage all of these factors and to keep the world on track and accountable for its decarbonization pledges. Obviously, it won’t be easy, and the difficulty, volatility, and expense of the energy transition will push the economy back toward fossil fuels if sufficient policy measures and enforcement instruments are not in place. It’s a tough road ahead for decarbonization, but compared to the alternative, it’s the best worst choice by a long shot.
