中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2022年11月15日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周二在其最新月度报告中表示，柴油价格居高不下引发通货膨胀，以及经济放缓，预计将导致2023年全球柴油需求下降。
IEA表示，目前柴油市场已经“异常紧张”，当欧盟对石油禁运于2023年初生效时，柴油市场将更加紧张。
IEA表示，甚至在今年2月地缘政治冲突之前，柴油市场就已经出现了短缺，因为自疫情开始以来，全球每天关闭了350万桶炼油厂产能，导致每天净减少100万桶石油产品。
疫情后的经济复苏推动了2021年的柴油需求。再加上馏分油库存处于几十年来的低点，以及炼油产能下降，这些因素将柴油价格及其与原油价格的价差推至创纪录水平。IEA指出，现在柴油价格比去年上涨了70%，柴油裂解比一年前激增了425%。
IEA说，今年全球柴油需求增长将比去年明显放缓，2023年将出现下降。
去年，全球柴油/燃料油需求平均每天增加了150万桶。IEA表示，“受油价持续高企、经济放缓的拖累，且尽管天然气转石油的情况有所增加”，今年全球柴油日需求增长预计仅为40万桶，而明年柴油需求将出现下降。
IEA表示，由于欧盟禁令于明年2月生效，“对柴油出口量的竞争将非常激烈，欧盟国家将不得不从传统买家手中竞购来自美国、中东和印度的柴油货物” 。
“炼油产能的增加最终将有助于缓解柴油紧张局势。然而，在此之前，如果价格过高，为了消除市场失衡，进一步的需求破坏可能是不可避免的。”IEA总结道。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Stubbornly High Diesel Prices May Lead To Lower Demand In 2023
Stubbornly high diesel prices fueling inflation as well as slowing economies are expected to lead to a slight decline in global diesel demand in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report>Currently, diesel markets are already “exceptionally tight” and will become tighter still when the EU embargo>Even before the war in February this year, diesel markets were already in deficit because 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of refinery capacity globally was closed down since the start of the pandemic, resulting in a net decline of 1 million bpd, the agency said.
The post-pandemic economic recovery boosted demand for diesel in 2021. This, combined with distillate inventories at multi-decade lows and lower refining capacity, has pushed diesel prices and the differentials to crude oil prices to record levels. Diesel prices are now 70% higher than last year, and the diesel cracks have surged by 425% from a year ago, the IEA noted.
Global diesel demand growth is set to significantly ease this year from last year and to be in decline in 2023.
Last year, global diesel/gasoil demand growth stood at 1.5 million bpd. This year’s growth is expected at just 400,000 bpd, while next year, diesel demand will post a small decline “under the weight of persistently high prices, a slowing economy and despite increased gas-to-oil switching,” the IEA said.
As the EU embargo>“Increased refinery capacity will eventually help ease diesel tensions. However, until then, if prices go too high, further demand destruction may be inevitable for the market imbalances to clear,” the IEA concluded.
