美国石油公司发出了石油产量增长放缓的警告
通货膨胀、劳动力短缺和供应链问题加剧了美国石油行业的不确定性
由于市场准备迎接崎岖的道路，在可预见的未来，美国石油公司将很可能保持谨慎
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网11月7日报道，当欧盟对进口海运原油的禁令将在几周后生效时，美国的页岩领域将无助于缓解可能非常紧张的全球石油市场。即使美国生产商想这么做，他们也无法大幅提高石油产量，尽管政府一再呼吁和威胁要为加油站的消费者寻求救济。一些最大石油公司的高管在过去一周召开的第三季度收益电话会议上表示，短期内的通货膨胀、劳动力短缺、供应链延迟以及美国中期能源政策缺乏确定性，都限制了美国石油行业的供应增长。
再加上严格的财务纪律和提高股东回报的优先级，美国石油产量的增长不会像疫情大流行之前那样，在2018年和2019年每年日增100万桶。
美国大型油气勘探和生产公司先锋自然资源公司首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德曾表示，今明两年美国石油产量增长可能会令人失望。
据路透社9月报道，谢菲尔德曾预测美国今年石油产量将日增50万桶，但2023年由于限制因素，美国石油产量增幅可能低于这一数字。
美国能源信息署在10月份的《短期能源展望》报告中表示，今年美国石油日产量将平均达到1170万桶，到2023年将达到1240万桶，这将超过2019年创下的历史新高。但美国能源信息署自今年年初以来多次下调了对经济增长的预测，而分析师表示，美国能源信息署目前的预测过于乐观。
埃克森美孚公司小幅下调了其对今年二叠纪盆地石油产量增长的预测，尽管预计产量仍将处于创纪录高位。
埃克森美孚公司首席执行官达伦·伍兹在10月底举行的财报电话会议上表示：“我预计今年的石油产量可能比去年增长20%左右，而去年的石油产量比前年增长25%。”
伍兹指出，总体而言，美国石油行业受到限制，但随着时间的推移，提高石油产量的能力可能会“放松一点”。
另一家美国超级石油巨头雪佛龙公司预计其在二叠纪盆地的石油日产量将处于70万桶-75万桶指导区间的低端。
雪佛龙公司首席执行官迈克·沃思在公司财报电话会议上表示：“我们的产量将趋于低端。”但他同时指出，“我们不会改变今年的预期或未来的预期。”
他补充说，雪佛龙公司的产量增长速度趋于平稳。
康菲公司首席执行官瑞安·兰斯则表示，短期内劳动力短缺、供应链和通货膨胀等问题“可能会决定石油行业的发展速度”。
“通货膨胀和供应链限制在整个经济和我们的行业中持续存在。在美国页岩领域尤其如此，快速上升的成本，加上极度紧张的供应，限制了整个石油行业的产量增长速度。”兰斯如是说。
兰斯还谈到了美国政府的能源政策，以及该政策在长期许可和财政稳定方面的可预测性的重要性。兰斯说：“你知道，现在围绕暴利税的所有讨论都是无益的。”
对石油行业的政策缺乏确定性——不断有人指责石油公司从战争中获取“暴利”——再加上美国页岩领域专注于回报股东、偿还债务，加上劳动力和供应链限制，阻碍了今年的石油产量增长，预计美国石油产量增长放缓将延续到2023年。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Companies Remain Cautious As Economic Headwinds Grow
· U.S. oil companies are warning of a slowdown in production growth.
· Inflation, labor shortages and supply chain issues are fueling uncertainty in the industry.
· As the market braces for a rocky road ahead, U.S. oil companies will likely remain cautious for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. shale patch will not help ease what could be a very tight global oil market when the EU embargo>Add to this the strict financial discipline and the priority to boost shareholder returns, and the U.S. oil production growth is not what it used to be prior to the pandemic when output rose by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) annually in each of 2018 and 2019
Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield has said that U.S. oil production growth would likely disappoint this year and next.
Sheffield has forecast that U.S. oil production will add 500,000 bpd this year, but in 2023 the production gains may be lower than this due to constraints, Reuters reported in September.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA suggests that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.7 million bpd in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019. But the EIA has revised down its growth forecasts since the start of this year, while analysts say its current estimates are too optimistic.
Exxon slightly lowered its growth forecast for its Permian production this year, although it is still expected at a record high.
“I expect this year, we’ll probably come in at about 20% up>Generally, the industry is constrained, although the capacity to boost production will likely “loosen up a little bit” with time, Exxon’s CEO noted.
The other U.S. supermajor, Chevron, expects its production in the Permian to be at the lower end of the 700,000 bpd-750,000 bpd guidance range.
“We’ll be toward the lower end,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said>Chevron is seeing production growth rate leveling out, he added.
ConocoPhillips, for its part, said that issues in the short term around labor shortages, supply chain, and inflation are “probably dictating the pace of the industry.”
“Inflation and supply chain constraints continue across the entire economy and our industry. This is particularly true in the U.S. shale, where rapidly escalating costs, combined with extremely tight supply, are limiting the pace of industrywide production growth,” CEO Ryan Lance said.
Lance also spoke about the U.S. Administration’s energy policy and the importance that this policy is predictable in terms of long-term permitting and fiscal stability.
“You know, the whole conversation around windfall profits taxes is not a helpful conversation right now,” Lance said.
The lack of certainty in the policy toward the industry—with incessant finger-pointing at oil companies “profiteering” from a windfall of war – has combined with the U.S. shale patch’s focus on rewarding shareholders and paying down debts and labor and supply chain constraints to hold back growth in production this year, and the slower growth rate expected to extend into 2023.
