中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2022年11月8日报道，由于政府抨击石油公司没有扩大供应，且欧佩克+10月将原油日产量目标削减200万桶，美国能源信息署（EIA）11月8日大幅调降明年全球石油需求增长预估。
根据EIA周二发布的《短期能源展望》（STEO）报告，EIA将2023年全球石油日需求增长预期下调32万桶，至116万桶，同时将今年全球石油日需求增长预期上调14万桶，至260万桶。
EIA预计，在今年第三季度和今年第四季度全球石油库存每天分别增长80万桶和20万桶之后，全球石油库存将在2023年初再次开始下降。 EIA预计，2023年第一季全球石油库存将日减120万桶，2023年全年将平均日减30万桶。
美国本周承诺，美国政府将批准在美国“不再钻探”石油，而欧佩克+已将其原油日产量目标削减200万桶。EIA的STEO报告预计，今年美国原油日产量平均为1183万桶，明年为1231万桶。EIA还认为，欧佩克的原油产量在11月和12月将出现下降。对于2023年，EIA预计欧佩克2023年的平均原油日产量为2890万桶，比今年日增30万桶。
EIA预测，明年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶95.33美元，低于今年的平均价格102.13美元，原因是“欧佩克和非欧佩克石油产量的增长——尤其是美国的产量增长”。EIA 预计，布伦特原油价格将持续上涨至明年下半年。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Cuts World Oil Demand Growth For 2023
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has slashed its world oil demand growth forecast for next year as the Administration lashed out at oil companies for not expanding supply, and as OPEC+ moved last month to cut production targets by 2 million bpd.
The EIA has cut its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 320,000 barrels per day, to 1.16 million bpd, while raising 2022 oil demand growth by 140,000 bpd, to 2.6 million bpd, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook published>The EIA expects global oil inventories to begin to fall again early in 2023, after what it sees as a 0.8 million bpd growth in Q3 2022, and a 0.2 million bpd growth in Q4 this year. For 2023, the EIA sees global oil inventories falling by 1.2 million bpd in the first quarter next year, for an average 300,000 bpd loss for the full year 2023.
The Administration this week pledged to approve “no more drilling” for oil in the United States, while OPEC+ has moved to scale back its production targets by 2 million bpd. The EIA’s STEO sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 11.83 million bpd this year, and 12.31 million bpd next year. The EIA also sees OPEC’s crude oil production falling in November and December. For 2023, the EIA sees OPEC’s full 2023 production averaging 28.9 million bpd, up 300,000 bpd from this year.
Its predictions for the price of a Brent barrel for next year is an average of $95.33, down from an average $102.13 across 2022, due to the “growth in OPEC and non-OPEC oil production—most notably production in the United States. The EIA does see Brent barrel prices rising into the second half of next year.
