中国石化新闻网讯 据阿拉伯贸易网2022年11月2日阿布扎比报道，一份报告称，到2045年，全球石油行业将需要在上游、中游和下游累计投资12.1万亿美元，相当于每年超过5000亿美元的投资来满足全球对油气的需求。
根据欧佩克《2022年世界石油展望》(WOO)报告，全球需要各种形式的能源来满足未来的能源需求，到2045年，全球需要平均每年日增270万桶油当量的石油和天然气。
报告称，全球石油日需求预计将从2021年的近9700万桶增加到2045年的1.1亿桶左右。
这份报告11月1日在阿布扎比举行的2022年阿布扎比国际石油展览会和会议(ADIPEC)上发布。
世界石油展望报告首次发表于2007年，对全球石油和能源行业到2045年的中长期前景进行了详细的回顾和评估。
预计从现在到2045年，全球经济规模将增加一倍多，全球人口将增加16亿。
报告称，预计全球一次能源需求在中长期内将继续增加，到2045年期间将大幅增加23%。
WOO指出，能源贫困仍然是整个预测期间的一个重要问题，发达国家和发展中国家之间仍然存在很大的差距。
报告的其他亮点：
* WOO预测称，在整个展望期内，石油预计将继续占据能源结构的最大份额，到2045年将占到近29%的份额。
* 可再生能源——主要包括太阳能、风能和地热能——将以年均7.1%的速度增加，明显快于任何其他能源。
* 除煤炭外，所有主要燃料种类在此期间都在增加。
* 非经合组织国家推动石油需求增长，在预测期内将日增近2400万桶，而经合组织国家在2021年至2045年期间日产量将下降1000多万桶。
* 印度将成为全球石油需求增量最大的贡献者，到2045年将日增大约630万桶。
* 考虑到航空业从疫情中初步复苏较慢，航空业的石油日需求量在2021年至2045年期间以410万桶的增速领航。紧随其后的是公路运输和石油化工。
* 到2027年前，非欧佩克石油日供应量将扩大至7140万桶，到2045年预计将下降至6750万桶。
* 到2045年前，欧佩克石油日产量将增加到4240万桶，其在全球石油供应中所占的份额将从2021年的33%上升到2045年的39%。
* 在2022年至2045年期间，全球炼油产能预计将日增1550万桶。
* 亚太、中东和非洲的中期和长期炼油产能强劲扩张，部分被发达地区的炼油厂关闭所抵消。
* 与2021年相比，强劲的需求增长预计将导致中期下游市场趋紧。
* 由于行业低迷、疫情影响以及越来越关注环境、社会和治理问题，最近的年度投资水平远远低于必要水平。
* 中东和亚太地区之间的原油和凝析油日流量仍然是最重要的石油贸易链接，其数量从2021年的1350万桶增加到2045年的1850万桶。
* 预计亚太地区在整个预测期内仍将是最重要的原油进口地区，进口量将日增750多万桶。
* 技术进步将塑造全球能源新格局，而与能源需求和供应有关的公共政策预计将在预测期内变得更加严格。
加强全球合作可以以更一致、更平衡和更综合的方式实现《巴黎协定》和相互关联的可持续发展目标。
这份旗舰出版物的第16版报告包含了对行业内部和外部的各种联系及其变化的动态的分析，在过去的一年里，人们重新关注能源可负担性、能源安全和减排需求之间的相互作用。 它提供了对能源和石油需求、石油供应和炼油、全球经济、政策和技术发展、人口趋势、环境问题和可持续发展关切的见解。
欧佩克秘书长在发布该报告时表示：“2022年世界石油与能源大会再次强调了全球石油和能源行业日益复杂的本质。这是一个充满挑战的环境，需要专家分析来帮助我们应对未来的挑战和机遇。 WOO报告提供了这种分析。”
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
Oil sector needs $12trn investment till 2045: report
The global oil sector will need a cumulative investment of $12.1 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045, equating to over $500 billion each year to meet the demand, says a report.
All forms of energy will be needed to address future energy needs and the world needs to annually add>Globally, oil demand is projected to increase from almost 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2021 to around 110 mb/d in 2045, the outlook said.
The outlook was launched yesterday at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) 2022 in Abu Dhabi.
First published in 2007, the WOO offers a detailed review and assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects for the global oil and energy industries to 2045.
The world economy is expected to more than double in size, and the global population rise by 1.6 billion between now and 2045.
Global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 23% in the period to 2045, it said.
Energy poverty remains an issue throughout the forecast period, with a wide gap remaining between developed and developing countries, the WOO said.
Other highlights of the report:
* Oil is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for almost a 29% share in 2045, WOO forecast said.
* Renewables – combining mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will expand by 7.1% p.a.>* All major fuel types witness growth, with the exception of coal.
* Non-OECD countries drive oil demand growth, expanding by close to 24 mb/d over the forecast period, whereas the OECD declines by over 10 mb/d between 2021 and 2045.
* India is set to be the largest contributor to incremental demand, adding around 6.3 mb/d to 2045.
* Oil demand in aviation leads the sectoral breakdown with growth of 4.1 mb/d from 2021 to 2045, given its slower initial recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. It is followed closely by road transportation and petrochemicals.
* Non-Opec liquids supply expands in the medium-term to 71.4 mb/d by 2027, before an expected decline to 67.5 mb/d by 2045.
* Opec liquids are set to grow to 42.4 mb/d by 2045, with its share of global supply rising from 33% in 2021 to 39% in 2045.
* Global refining capacity additions are projected at 15.5 mb/d between 2022 and 2045.
* Robust medium and long-term refinery capacity expansion in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, is partly offset by closures in developed regions.
* Strong demand growth is expected to lead to a tightening medium-term downstream market relative to 2021.
* Recent annual investment levels have been significantly below the necessary, due to industry downturns, the pandemic, and the increasing focus>* Crude and condensate flows between the Middle East and Asia-Pacific remain the most important oil trade link, with volumes increasing from below 13.5 mb/d in 2021 to 19.5 mb/d in 2045.
* The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to remain the most important crude oil importing region throughout the forecast period, with imports rising by over 7.5 mb/d.
* Technological advancements are set to shape the global energy landscape while public policies relating to energy demand and supply are expected to become more stringent over the forecast period.
* Enhanced global cooperation could allow for a more coherent, balanced and integrated approach for realizing the Paris Agreement and the interlinked Sustainable Development Goals.
The 16th edition of the flagship publication incorporates analysis of the industry’s various internal and external linkages and its shifting dynamics that has seen a renewed focus over the past year of the interplay between energy affordability, energy security, and the need to reduce emissions. It provides insights into energy and oil demand, oil supply and refining, the global economy, policy and technology developments, demographic trends, environmental issues and sustainable development concerns.
Opec’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, in launching the publication said: “The WOO 2022 once again underscores the increasingly complex nature of the global oil and energy industries. It is a challenging environment, and one that requires expert analysis to help us navigate both the challenges and opportunities ahead. The WOO provides this.”
