国际能源署《世界经济展望》报告表示：地缘政治冲突和能源危机正在加速全球能源转型
快速增长的电动汽车市场已经造成关键电池和工业金属的供应瓶颈
自国际能源署制定2050年净零排放路线图以来，全球石油消费量只增不减
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网10月30日报道，国际能源署（IEA）在其最新的《世界能源展望》报告中表示，由于目前困扰全球的能源危机，对化石燃料的需求将达到峰值，从而加速向可再生能源的转型。但这只是一厢情愿的想法吗?
IEA——有史以来第一次——在它为其预测设计的所有情景中看到了这种意外发生的事。即使是“既定政策方案”——通常是最保守的方案——对化石燃料的需求也将在21世纪20年代中期开始永久下降，“年平均下降幅度大致相当于一个大油田很长一段时间的产量”。
煤炭将是第一个被淘汰的能源——而且就在短短几年之后。接下来是天然气的终结，到2030年前天然气需求将趋于稳定。与此同时，石油应该会被大量涌入的电动汽车挤出市场。
但真的会这样吗?
去年欧洲天然气供应短缺引发的能源危机在今年全面爆发，推高了对化石燃料的需求。
当时，英国石油公司（bp）预测石油峰值已经在2019年出现。根据这家英国石油巨头的说法，全球石油需求将永远不会再回到2019年的水平。在这一点上，所有预测的人都说，全球煤炭需求将永远不会再增长，而天然气将是通往可再生能源未来的桥梁燃料。然后，天然气开始和石油一样被妖魔化，被认为是肮脏和不合适的。但那是在危机之前。
现在，由于欧洲天然气短缺，煤炭需求有所上升，一些国家重新启用了被封存的燃煤发电厂，提高了石油产量，甚至在冬季将燃气发电厂转为燃煤发电厂。
政客们——以及IEA——似乎都认为这是一种短期的需求刺激，在天然气市场恢复正常的那一刻就会失效。这种看法的问题在于，天然气市场不会在一周甚至一个月内恢复正常。事实上，欧洲天然气市场不太可能恢复正常。
由于美国新的液化天然气供应上线缓慢，无法取代失去的管道天然气流量，我们可能会在未来几年看到强劲的煤炭需求。然后，印度和其他亚洲经济体将继续使用煤炭，因为煤炭仍然比天然气便宜，尤其是比液化天然气便宜，液化天然气的价格被饥渴的欧洲买家推到了天价。
在石油需求方面，IEA似乎认为电动汽车将从21世纪30年代中期开始消灭石油需求。然而，这将需要生产、销售和使用数以百万计的电动汽车，由于金属和矿产领域的短缺迫在眉睫，这一点还远未确定。
几个月来，采矿业和分析师一直在对铜供应发出警告。本月早些时候，托克公司表示，全球铜库存已降至危险的低水平，相当于大约4.9天的全球消费量。托克公司在英国《金融时报》举办的一次活动上表示，到今年年底，这一时间将进一步缩短至2.7天。
托克公司金属和矿物交易联席主管科斯塔斯·宾塔斯表示：“欧盟已决定将其太阳能发电能力翻一番目标的实现时间从2030年提前到2025年，这并非偶然。 所有这些都需要大量的铜。
“看看到处都是电动汽车，(路上电动汽车的数量)令人惊讶。那也有很多铜。因此，在这非常困难的一年里，我们一直在努力减少铜的库存。”
所有这些警告所暗示的很简单：可能没有足够的原材料来生产所有的电动汽车——以及太阳能发电场和风力发电厂——需要出售这些原材料来减少石油需求，从而迎来可再生能源的未来。
根据IEA的说法，能源转型是一个能源安全问题，地缘政治冲突突显了这一点，并可能成为加速转型的催化剂。事实上，一个国家在当地生产的能源越多，它就越安全。问题在于，被选择用来推动这种转型的可再生能源形式，并不善于提供能源安全保障。
高盛公司大宗商品研究全球主管杰弗里·柯里近日对CNBC表示，全球在过去10年里在可再生能源领域的投资约为3.8万亿美元，而这一巨额投资只是将化石燃料在全球能源结构中的份额从82%下降到81%。
此刻，柯里继续指出，这一比例很可能会回到82%，因为能源短缺刺激了更多的煤炭消费。他还指出，对可再生能源的投资一直在产能方面，但风能和太阳能装置的产能利用率往往相当低。这就是阻碍风能和太阳能供应（IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔所说的能源安全）的原因。
在过去几年里，IEA作为能源转型的拥护者，而不是一个对所有形式能源都开放的能源机构，已经不如以前。它强调转型需要尽快进行，而且它与能源危机没有任何因果关系，这引起了一些怀疑，尤其是在它的“净零路线图”发布之后。
当时，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣认为这个“净零路线图”为“爱乐之城”。 有趣的是，自路线图公布以来，对化石燃料的需求确实增加了，这促使IEA在路线图中表示，我们不再需要投资额外的石油和天然气生产后，自己呼吁对化石燃料进行更多投资。
与上述路线图一样，这份最新的《世界经济展望》报告可能会被载入史册，成为IEA一厢情愿的最新想法，而不是任何看似合理的现实的反映。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Is The IEA Too Optimistic about The Energy Transition?
· IEA’s WEO: the War and the energy crisis are speeding up the global energy transition.
· The fast-growing EV market is already causing bottlenecks in the supply of critical battery, and industrial metals.
· Since the IEA laid out its roadmap for net-zero 2050, oil consumption has>In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency stated that thanks to the energy crisis rattling the world right now, demand for fossil fuels would peak, speeding up the transition to renewable energy. But is this just a case of wishful thinking?
The IEA—for the first time ever—sees this happening—across all of the scenarios it devised for its forecast. According to even the Stated Policy Scenario—usually the most conservative of the scenarios—demand for fossil fuels would begin permanently declining in the mid-2020s “by an annual average roughly equivalent to the lifetime output of a large oil field.”
Coal will be the first to go—and in just a few short years from now. Following that comes the end of natural gas, which will plateau by 2030. Oil, meanwhile, should be squeezed out by the influx of electric vehicles.
But will it, really?
The energy crisis that began last year in Europe with short gas supplies fully unfolded this year ，has pushed demand for fossil fuels higher than it was before the pandemic.
At the time, BP was forecasting that peak oil had already occurred in 2019. According to the oil major, oil demand would never again return to 2019 levels.>Now, coal demand has risen because of the gas squeeze in Europe, with countries reopening mothballed coal-powered plants, boosting oil production, and even converting gas-fired power plants to coal for the winter.
Politicians—along with the IEA—seem to believe that this is a short-term demand boost that will expire the moment gas markets return to normal. The problem with this belief is that gas markets will not return to normal in a week or even a month. In fact, it is unlikely that gas markets in Europe will ever return to normal.
With new U.S. LNG supply slow to come>On the subject of oil demand, the IEA appears to believe that EVs will kill it beginning in the mid-2030s. Yet this would necessitate the production, sale, and use of many millions of EVs, which is far from certain because of the looming shortages in the metal and mineral world.
Warnings about copper supply have been coming from the mining industry and from analysts for months now. Trafigura was the latest to add its voice to them, saying earlier this month that global copper stocks had fallen to dangerously low levels, equal to about 4.9 days of global consumption. By the end of the year, Trafigura said at an FT event, this will be reduced to 2.7 days.
“It is not accidental that the EU has decided to bring forward the target of doubling its solar capacity from 2030 to 2025. All that requires a lot of copper,” Kostas Bintas, Trafigura co-head of metals and minerals trading, said.
“Look at electric vehicles everywhere, [the numbers>What all these warnings are suggesting is pretty simple: there may not be enough raw materials for all the EVs—and solar farms and wind parks—that need to be sold to kill oil demand and usher in the renewable energy future.
According to the IEA, the transition is a matter of energy security, and the war has highlighted that and would likely act as a catalyst for a quicker transition. Indeed, the more locally produced energy a country has, the more secure it is. The problem is that the forms of renewable energy chosen to drive the transition are not very good at providing energy security.
The latest to make that clear was Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie, who told CNBC this week that some $3.8 trillion was invested in renewables over the past decade, and this massive investment>Now, Currie went>The International Energy Agency has become quite notorious in the past few years as a champion for the energy transition rather than an energy agency open to all forms of energy. Its emphasis>At the time, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister mocked the plan calling it “La La Land.” Interestingly, since the publication of the road map, demand for fossil fuels has indeed increased and has prompted the IEA itself to call for more investment in them after saying in the road map that we had no more need to invest in additional oil and gas production.
Like that road map, this latest WEO might go down in history as the latest IEA installment of wishful thinking rather than a reflection of any remotely plausible reality.
