国际能源署(IEA)认为，全球能源危机可能会加速从化石燃料的转型
这是IEA在《世界能源展望》报告中首次将每种化石燃料的价格都纳入峰值或稳定期
天然气需求最初预计将继续上涨，但现在预计将在2030年前后见顶，产能大国的化石燃料出口将永远不会恢复
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网10月27日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周四表示，由于地缘政治冲突后的各国政府政策和贸易流动转变，全球化石燃料消费预计将在下个十年内达到峰值或趋于稳定。
IEA在10月27日发布的《2022年世界能源展望》报告中表示，根据当前各国政府政策和系统设置，来自IEA的世界能源展望情景首次显示，全球对每种化石燃料的需求在下一个十年内将达到峰值或稳定期。
根据IEA的最新估计，就连此前预计将继续上涨的天然气需求，现在也可能与煤炭和石油一样，在2030年前后达到峰值。
IEA表示：“有史以来第一次，基于当前主流政策设定的世界经济展望情景——在这种情况下，是既定政策情景——让全球对每种化石燃料的需求出现峰值或进入稳定期。”
在既定政策场景(STEPS)情景中，煤炭使用量将在未来几年内下降，天然气需求将在本十年结束前达到稳定期，而电动汽车销量的上升意味着石油需求将在21世纪30年代中期趋平，然后略微下降到本世纪中期。
IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔表示：“当前能源危机的影响之一是，全球天然气需求快速增长的时代即将结束。”
比罗尔说：“在欧洲，气候政策加速了对天然气的依赖。到本世纪20年代中期，新的供应将使天然气价格下降，液化天然气对天然气安全将变得更加重要。”
IEA的最新分析显示，近期煤炭价格的上涨幅度很小，而且只是暂时的。与此同时，可再生能源预计将继续飙升，蚕食煤炭和天然气在电力结构中所占的份额。
比罗尔说，IEA的《2022年世界能源展望》报告还预测，“在我们的任何设想中，产能大国的化石燃料出口永远不会回到去年的水平”，“在10年内，该国在国际石油和天然气贸易中所占的份额将下降一半”。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA Expects Demand For All Fossil Fuels To Peak In The Next Decade
· The International Energy Agency believes the global energy crisis could accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
· This is the first time ever that the IEA’s World Energy Outlook scenario has included a peak or plateau for every fossil fuel.
· Natural gas was originally expected to continue rising but is now expected to peak around 2030, with the bigger producer fossil fuel exports never returning.
Fossil fuel consumption is expected to peak or plateau within this decade, accelerated by the policy and trade flow shifts following the war, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said>For the first time ever, a World Energy Outlook scenario from the IEA based>Even natural gas, which was previously expected to continue rising, could now join coal and oil in peaking around 2030, according to the IEA’s latest estimates.
“For the first time ever, a WEO scenario based>In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario, coal use is set to fall back within the next few years, natural gas demand will reach a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand will level off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century.
“One of the effects of the current crisis is that the era of rapid growth in global gas demand draws to a close,” the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
“In Europe, climate policies accelerate the shift away from gas. New supply brings prices down by the mid-2020s, and LNG becomes even more important to gas security,” Birol added.
The recent rise in coal is small and>The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 also predicts that “Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of our scenarios – to their 2021 levels,” Birol said. “Within 10 years, the bigger producer's share of internationally traded oil & gas is set to fall by half.”
