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高盛认为年底布伦特原油或将逾90美元/桶

   2021-10-28 1110
核心提示:   据能源世界网10月26日新德里报道,日前,高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示,全球石油需求强劲反弹,可能将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶

   据能源世界网10月26日新德里报道,日前,高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示,全球石油需求强劲反弹,可能将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶90美元的年底预测之上。

  据这家美国投资银行表示,随着亚洲的消费在德尔塔病毒疫情浪潮之后反弹,预计石油需求将很快达到疫情之前的每天1亿桶左右的水平。

  此外,该银行估计天然气到石油的转换可能至少为石油需求贡献100万桶/天。

  高盛在10月24日的一份研究报告中称,尽管这不是我们的基本情况,但这种持续性将对我们 90 美元/桶的布伦特原油年底价格预测构成上行风险。

  全球供应吃紧和需求强劲将油价推至多年高位,截至周一格林威治标准时间07:31,美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格为每桶84.38美元,布伦特原油期货价格为86.26美元。

  鉴于我们预计欧佩克+将继续保持目前每月增加40万桶/天配额的趋势,我们需要将油价升至110美元/桶,以抑制足够的需求,以平衡我们目前看到的明年第一季度的市场赤字。

  本月早些时候,石油输出国组织、俄罗斯及其盟国被称作欧佩克+(OPEC+)的组织表示,将继续执行现有协议,同意每月增产40万桶/天,至少到2022年4月为止。

  郝芬 译自 能源世界网

  原文如下:

  Goldman sees upside risks to $90 per barrel Brent price forecast

  Goldman Sachs said a strong rebound in global oil demand could push Brent crude oil prices above its year-end forecast of $90 per barrel.

  The U.S. investment bank said it expected oil demand will shortly reach pre-COVID-19 levels of around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) as consumption in Asia rebounds after the Delta COVID-19 wave.

  In addition, the bank estimated gas-to-oil switching may contribute at least 1 million bpd to oil demand.

  "While not our base-case, such persistence would pose upside risk to our $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast," Goldman said in a research note dated Oct. 24.

  Tight global supply and strong demand have pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures trading at $84.38 a barrel and Brent crude futures at $86.26 by 0731 GMT align="justify">  "We would need prices to rise to $110 /bbl to stifle demand enough to balance the market deficit we currently see in 1Q22 given our expectation that OPEC+ continues align="justify">  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+ earlier this month said it would continue an existing deal under which it agreed to boost output by 400,000 bpd a month until at least April 2022.

 
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