据每日油价网站9月6日报道,根据彭博社分析,欧洲能源价格或将攀至新高,并且仍将保持上升空间。
当然,不仅仅在欧洲,全球天然气价格均出现猛涨。美国天然气基准价已较去年翻了一番,尽管像阿巴拉契亚这样的盆地天然气产量创下了记录,但截至9月6日,亨利中心(Henry Hub)天然气价格仍旧攀升至4.690美元/百万英热。与此同时,美国天然气出口量大幅飙升,创下了历史新高。
对于刚刚摆脱疫情限制的欧洲来说,天然气和电力的需求随着返工返岗的势头逐渐增加,引发了价格的上涨,进而导致通胀。由于能源价格上涨,德国正在经历自2008年以来最高的通货膨胀。
通常情况下,每年这个季节对天然气的需求仍然很低。在需求较低的情况下,却出现如此的高昂的能源价格令欧洲倍感担忧。它们预计将面临一个艰难的冬季,天然气库存量或将处于难以忍受的低水平。
而风力发电对当下情况也没有任何帮助,低风速和高温限制了这种可再生能源的生产,同时将导致更多的煤炭消费。
如果欧洲仍然希望自己的化石燃料能够阻止冬季电力价格危机,那就错了。据彭博社报道,几次生产中断和不断减少的天然气田导致天然气价格高于原油价格。
一些人预估,零售消费者为公用事业所支付的费用或将增加20%。
法国能源公司Engie SA分析部门EnergyScan负责人霍罗(Julien howarau)表示,欧洲的问题甚至还未真正开始。
沈彦 摘译自 每日油价
原文如下:
Europe’s High Energy Prices Are Just The Beginning
European energy prices might be at record levels, but there is still room for prices to run, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
Of course, natural gas prices are soaring everywhere—not just in Europe. The U.S. benchmark price for natural gas has nearly doubled over the last year, with front-month Henry Hub prices reaching $4.690/MMBtu as of September 6. And that’s despite record natural gas production in hot basins like Appalachia.
But U.S. gas exports are soaring more, hitting all-time records.
For Europe, which is coming off pandemic restrictions, the increased demand for natural gas and electricity as people return for work is triggering higher prices, and therefore inflation. Germany is battling the highest inflation since 2008, thanks to higher energy prices.
Typically, demand for natural gas this time of year is still low.
Today’s high prices, at a time when demand is typically low, are worrisome for Europe, which is now looking at a difficult winter, with natural gas inventories at painfully low levels.
The situation isn’t helped any by wind power, either, because low wind speeds and high temps are tamping down renewable power production, and in the process, paving the way for higher coal consumption.
And if Europe is still hoping that its own fossil fuels would prevent a winter price crunch for power, it would be wrong. According to Bloomberg, several production outages and declining gas fields have helped to send natural gas prices trading at a premium to crude oil.
Some estimates see retail consumers paying 20% more for utility bills.
Julien Hoarau, head of Engie SA’s analytics unit EnergyScan, said that Europe’s problems haven’t even started yet.





