据路透社9月1日报道，四位消息人士周三表示，尽管欧佩克及其盟友上调了2022年需求预期，并面临美国要求其加快增产的压力，但其可能仍将坚持逐步增产的现有政策。
由俄罗斯领导的欧佩克+于格林尼治时间15：00举行会议，产油国们在7月份同意通过每月向市场增加40万桶原油来逐步取消创纪录的减产。
一位消息人士在周三会谈前表示，“欧佩克+很可能会继续履行此前达成的协议”。
周二，欧佩克+专家将2022年石油需求增长预测从之前的328万桶/日上调至420万桶/日，这可能为未来提高产量提供了可能。
根据2021年的数据，2022年的前景看起来比较乐观。欧佩克+预计今年的需求将增长595万桶/日，此前2020年由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，需求下降了约900万桶/日，但2021年上半年的需求仅增长了约300万桶/日。
相对于较高的预期，需求令人失望，而且仍然存在阻力，尤其是在亚洲。预计需求只会在2022年下半年回升到2019年的水平。
随着基准布伦特原油价格突破每桶72美元，接近多年来的高点，美国呼吁欧佩克加速增产。欧佩克+联合技术委员会(JTC)周二发布了一份关于2021-2022年石油市场状况的最新报告，对需求预测进行了修正。该报告预计，随着全球需求复苏，今年的日供应缺口将达到90万桶。不过，该报告尚未公开。
该消息人士称，该报告最初预计2022年的盈余为250万桶/日，但由于需求强劲，后来修正为160万桶/日。JTC的报告显示，在2022年5月之前，经合组织(主要由发达国家组成)的商业石油库存将低于2015-2019年的平均水平，而不是2022年1月的初步预测。
王佳晶 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
OPEC+ seen sticking to policy despite higher oil demand
OPEC and its allies will likely stick to their existing policy of gradual oil output increases despite revising up the 2022 demand outlook and facing U.S. pressure to raise production more quickly, four sources said align="justify"> The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, meet at 1500 GMT.
They agreed in July to phase out record output cuts by adding 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) a month to the market.
“(OPEC+) will most likely keep the agreement as it was agreed,” align="justify"> On Tuesday, OPEC+ experts revised the 2022 oil demand growth forecast to 4.2 million bpd, up from a previous 3.28 million bpd, potentially building the case for higher output in future.
The outlook for 2022 looks optimistic based align="justify"> “Demand has disappointed relative to lofty expectations and there are still headwinds, particularly in Asia. We align="justify"> The United States has called for speedier output increases by OPEC+ as benchmark Brent crude traded above $72 per barrel, close to multi-year highs. [O/R]
The demand forecast revision came during the OPEC+ joint technical committee (JTC), which align="justify"> On Tuesday, OPEC+ sources said the report, which has not been made public, forecast a 0.9 million bpd deficit this year as global demand recovers.
The report had initially forecast a surplus of 2.5 million bpd in 2022 but this was later revised to a smaller surplus of 1.6 million bpd due to stronger demand, the sources said.
As a result, commercial oil inventories in the OECD, a group of mostly developed countries, would remain below the 2015-2019 average until May 2022 rather than the initial forecast for January 2022, the JTC presentation showed, according to the sources.
