据今日油价8月24日报道，温斯顿•丘吉尔(Winston Churchill)曾告诫各国领导人，永远不要“浪费”一场好的危机，石油巨头通常都会对这一警句深表同意（石油巨头很少不听这一建议）。在正常情况下，能源低迷态势为财力雄厚的石油和天然气巨头创造了绝佳的机会，以低廉的价格获得优质资产。举一个很好的例子，该行业发生了大量的大型并购交易，包括荷兰皇家壳牌与BG集团、加拿大油砂公司和森科尔能源公司之间的600亿美元的合作，包括失败的哈里伯顿和贝克休斯之间拟议的合并。
如今，这些大石油公司好像已经抛弃了这一老套做法，似乎对一些并购行动并不感兴趣。
就并购而言，今年是油气行业最慢的一年。据彭博社汇编的数据显示，截至目前，今年已宣布或完成的并购交易总额为860亿美元，有望成为20年来能源领域并购交易最低迷的年份之一。
并购热潮消退
石油行业的高管们似乎过于胆怯，不愿出手购买在最近一次石油市场低迷后出现的大量不良资产，不过，这是有充分理由的。毕竟，对许多收购公司来说，上一波并购浪潮变成了一场灾难。
去年，荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)将股息从每股0.16美元削减至0.4美元，相当于削减66%。这是该公司自二战以来第一次削减股息，这证明了石油行业受到的冲击是多么严重。然而，大幅削减支出可能还有另一个重要原因，2016年收购BG集团的这一交易，让该公司损失了600亿美元。
西方石油公司以550亿美元杠杆收购阿纳达科公司，这已成为油气并购失败的典型案例。这笔交易已经变成了一场彻头彻尾的灾难，让该公司陷入了深深的困境，因为它背负着堆积如山的债务，还有一些冷嘲热讽，即用收购阿纳达科的一小部分资金来收购自己。
石油巨头的高负债水平也难辞其咎，这时矛头指向了英国石油公司(BP Plc)。英国石油公司的债务极高，尽管这可能与2018年与必和必拓(BHP Billiton) 105亿美元的合并没有太大关系，更多的是与深水地平线(Deepwater Horizon)石油泄漏事件有关，多年来，该事件导致BP在清理成本和法律费用方面损失了令人震惊的650亿美元。
BP的债务权益比为0.87，远高于石油和天然气行业0.47的平均水平，是石油巨头中最高的。
值得一提的是，英国石油并非唯一陷入债务难题的公司。
雪佛龙、壳牌和道达尔都宣布在当前财报季恢复股票回购，埃克森美孚选择偿还债务，而不是奖励股东。埃克森美孚在2016年暂停了回购，因为该公司正在进行最激进的页岩扩张项目，尤其是在二叠纪盆地。
《华尔街日报》的李金乔（Jinjoo Lee）说，埃克森美孚的灵活性不如同行，这是由于多年来的超支，随后遭遇了残酷的2020年。这使该公司处于弱势地位，现在埃克森美孚别无选择，只能降低其债务水平，要知道其债务水平最近已达到历史高点。
对XOM的股东来说，幸运的是，首席执行官达伦•伍兹(Darren Woods)向投资者保证，恢复股票回购是“可能的”，不过他重申，恢复资产负债表的实力，使债务恢复到与强劲的AAA评级相符的水平仍是当务之急。
不过，表示，像雪佛龙和道达尔这样资产负债表相对强劲的石油巨头，可以收购GALP Energia 等低价资产，或者英国石油公司在阿曼一个天然气项目中的股份。
资本的约束
油气公司更倾向于维持最重要的股息或削减资本支出，以保持流动性，而不是合并。这是上一个收益季度可以清楚地看到的趋势。
全球油气公司在努力维持资本纪律的同时，仍未提高资本支出预算。
根据加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的数据，2020年，该公司跟踪的190家油气公司的总投资预算预计将从3347亿美元增长4%，至3480亿美元，但较2019年4617亿美元的水平低25%。
预计2021年全球七大石油巨头的总支出将达到782亿美元，仅比2020年的778亿美元增加1%，比2019年的1100亿美元减少20%。
不过，并非所有人都认同并购前景惨淡的看法。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师米歇尔·德拉维尼亚（Michele DellaVigna）表示，资产高度分散的美国页岩行业仍有可能出现一系列整合。
德拉维尼亚承认，“我们不太可能看到上世纪90年代的大型并购重演，不过，并购有财务上的理由，尤其是在美国页岩行业，要知道，该行业此前一直缺乏成本约束。在行业整合、财政紧缩和进入壁垒上升的时期，石油行业实现了最佳的企业回报。我们认为，在股东要求去碳化的压力下，可能会重现类似上世纪90年代末那样的资产整合和资本纪律阶段。"
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Merger Mania Is Over: Oil Deals To See Quietest Year In Decades
ir Winston Churchill align="justify"> But Big Oil has now ditched that old playbook and appears largely disinterested in some M&A action this time around.
The current year is shaping up as align="justify"> M&A disaster
Oil executives appear too gun-shy to pull the trigger align="justify"> After all, the last M&A wave turned into a disaster for many of the acquiring companies.
Last year, Royal Dutch Shell cut its dividend from US$0.16 per ordinary share to US$0.4, good for a 66% cut. That marked the first time the company cut the dividend since WWII, a testament of just how severe the oil massacre has been, which is what Shell blamed in its press release. However, there could be another culprit to blame for the dramatic cut: the company's 2016 acquisition of BG Group, which set it back $60B.
Occidental Petroleum's (NYSE:OXY) $55B leveraged purchase of Anadarko has become the poster-child of oil and gas mergers gone bad. The deal has turned into a complete disaster, leaving the company in deep distress over its mountain of debt and water cooler wisecracks of how it could itself get acquired at a fraction of what it paid for Anadarko.
Big Oil's high debt levels are also to blame; Cowen has pointed at BP Plc. 's (NYSE:BP) extremely high debt, though it might have less to do with its 2018 merger with BHP Billiton for $10.5B and more to do with its Deepwater Horizon oil spill which has cost it a staggering $65B in clean-up costs and legal fees over the years.
BP's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87 is way higher than the oil and gas sector's average of 0.47, and the highest among the oil supermajors.
BP is hardly alone in the debt conundrum.
Whereas Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) all have all announced a return to stock buybacks during the current earnings season, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has opted to pay down debt rather than reward shareholders. Exxon suspended buybacks in 2016 as it went align="justify"> WSJ Heard align="justify"> Luckily for XOM shareholders, CEO Darren Woods has reassured investors that reinstating buybacks is "on the table," though he has reiterated that "restoring the strength of our balance sheet, returning debt to levels consistent with a strong double-A rating" remains the top priority.Cowen, though, says that oil majors like Chevron and Total with relatively strong balance sheets could go for cheap assets such as GALP Energia (GALP.Portugal) or BP's stake in a gas project in Oman.Capital disciplineInstead of mergers, oil and gas companies are preferring to maintain the all-important dividend or cut capex in a bid to preserve liquidity.
This is a trend we clearly witnessed during the last earnings season.The world's oil and gas companies have continued to hold back from raising their capital spending budgets as they try to maintain capital discipline.According to RBC, the aggregate investment budget for the 190 oil and gas companies tracked by the firm is forecast to grow by 4% to $348B from $334.7B in 2020, but a good 25% below 2019 levels of $461.7B spent.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michele DellaVigna says the highly fragmented U.S. shale industry could still be a candidate for a spate of consolidations.DellaVigna has conceded that we are not likely to see a repeat of the mega-mergers of the 1990s; however, he says there's a financial case to be made for mergers, especially in a sector like U.S. shale that has previously lacked cost discipline:"The oil industry has delivered its best corporate returns in periods of consolidation, financial tightening and rising barriers to entry.
We believe this environment (and shareholder pressure for de-carbonisation) could engender a similar phase of consolidation and capital discipline, as in the late '90s."
