据ICIS网站8月25日消息 由于丙烷作为石化原料的使用量增加，预计今年冬天美国丙烷消费量将比去年冬天增长3.4%，超过了天气变暖导致的低于正常需求的预期。
据美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，今年冬季取暖季节的丙烷消耗量平均为110万桶/日，比10年期平均水平高出1.5%，比去年冬季高出3.6万桶/日。
丙烷的消耗量是季节性的，由于对住宅空间供暖和农业谷物干燥的高需求，三分之二的年消耗量发生在从10月到3月的冬季取暖季节。
对谷物干燥的需求出现在加热季节的早期，在10月或11月达到峰值，但每年都会有所不同。
根据美国农业部的预测，美国玉米作物将在9月或10月初成熟，这样作物就可以在田间干燥，而不是使用丙烷燃料谷物干燥机。预计这将导致谷物干燥用丙烷的减少。
在过去十年中，10月份的大部分丙烷需求发生在2013年，当时美国中西部地区的消费量达到40.8万桶/日，比10年平均水平高出60%。
2019年11月的消费量创下新高，当时平均消费量为38.1万桶/日，比10年期平均水平高出约30%，原因是谷物收成晚于往年。
中西部地区拥有全国最高比例的丙烷供暖家庭。去年冬天，由于气候变暖，中西部地区的丙烷需求量创下了10年来的新低。与今冬不同的是，今冬天气更冷，预计会导致需求增加。
据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）称，目前预计今年冬天的气温相对正常。
中西部有42%的家庭使用丙烷作为主要的空间取暖燃料，并且种植了90%的美国玉米。
王磊 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
US propane consumption expected to rise 3.4% this winter
HOUSTON (ICIS)--US propane consumption is expected to rise 3.4% this winter, compared with last winter due to higher use of propane as petrochemical feedstock, outpacing expectations of below-normal demand due to a warmer weather forecast.
Propane consumption for this winter heating season is forecasted to average 1.1m bbl/day, 1.5% more than the 10-year average level and 36,000 bbl/day above last winter, according to the Energy Information Agency.
Propane consumption is seasonal, with two-thirds of the annual consumption happens during the winter heating season which runs through October through March, due to high demand for residential space heating and agricultural grain drying.
Demand for grain drying occurs early in the heating season, peaking in October or November, but it can vary from year to year.
According to the US Department of Agriculture forecast, US corn crop will mature early in September or October, allowing for the crop to dry in the field rather than using propane-fired grain dryers. This is expected to result in a decline in propane for grain drying.
In the past decade, most propane demand during October occurred in 2013 when the US Midwest consumption reached 408,000 bbl/day, 60% more than its 10-year average.
November consumption reached a high in 2019, when consumption averaged 381,000 bbl/day, about 30% above the 10-year average, because of a late harvest.
The Midwest has the highest share propane-heated homes in the country. Last winter, propane demand for the Midwest set a new low relative to the 10-year range because of warm weather. Unlike this winter which is expected to drive higher demand align="justify"> Expectations for this winter currently predict relatively normal temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The Midwest has 42% of homes using propane as a primary space heating fuel and 90% of the US corn crop is grown.
