据今日油价8月18日报道，油价周五下跌，但仍勉强维持在68.44美元/桶的微小周涨幅，因为投资者继续在看涨承压的全球市场与令人担忧的德尔塔病毒传播之间进行权衡。过去几周，油价波动剧烈，国际能源署(IEA)在其最新报告中警告称，德尔塔病毒将减缓全球石油需求的复苏。
根据IEA的数据，7月的需求下滑为12万桶/天，IEA预计今年下半年的需求增幅将比此前的预测下降50万桶/天。
好消息是:国际能源署上调了2022年的油价预期。
目前，全球石油需求平均增长530万桶/天，到2021年将达到9620万桶/天，到2022年将进一步增长320万桶/天。IEA还预测，未来一年，美国页岩开发将开始复苏，非欧佩克产油国的供应预计将在2022年增加170万桶/天，其中美国占60%。贝克休斯最新的每周调查发现，美国活跃的、以石油为目标的钻机数量增加了10台，达到了16个月以来的最高水平397台。
与此同时，投资者仍在试图确定美国政府最近呼吁欧佩克产油国(而非美国产油国)增加石油产量是否能成功。
Price Future的菲尔•弗林(Phil Flynn)对《华尔街日报》表示:“这向市场发出了复杂的信息，这种前后摇摆的能源政策让政府的批评者和支持者都摸不着头脑。”
以下是华尔街专家对油价前景的看法。
一位机构投资者名人堂(Institutional Investor Hall of fame)的成员警告说，美国市场的某些行业正处于泡沫区域，并敦促投资者迅速分散投资，转向在通胀环境下拥有定价权的行业。
理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(Richard Bernstein Advisors)的首席执行官兼首席信息官理查德·伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein)对长期资产发出了警告，包括大型科技公司、长期债券、米姆股票和比特币。
伯恩斯坦对CNBC表示:“我们正处在我职业生涯以来最大的泡沫中。美联储已经如此扭曲了长期曲线的正常走势，但我们仍看到长期资产出现了非常自然的反应，然后就有了自己的生命。任何持有这些长期资产的人都必须坚定地相信，长期利率不会上升，因为这是泡沫的克星。”
伯恩斯坦建议投资能源(NYSEARCA:XLE)和材料(NYSEARCA:XLB)，“我发现非常有趣的是，在过去的6到12个月里，能源市场一直处于大牛市，每个人都说这是不可持续的。比特币一直处于熊市，所有人都在等待它回归。”
能源行业仍可投资
托克维尔资产管理公司的投资组合经理约翰·彼得里迪斯在接受美国全国广播公司财经频道《贸易国家》节目采访时表示，能源行业仍然是可投资的，因为收益不断上升，而且世界将在几十年内继续使用化石燃料。在过去两个季度，由于大宗商品价格的改善，石油和天然气公司实现了最大的利润增长。他还指出，能源股被低估了，因为它只占标普500指数的3%。
更重要的是，许多石油公司都提高了股息，这在当前低收益环境下具有很大的吸引力。他推荐雪佛龙公司，称其为动荡的石油市场中的“安全灯塔”。
关于油价前景，彼得里迪斯预测油价将再次上涨，“在最近的回调中，原油价格回落，并重新触碰到了7月份的低点，但如果你看看能源股ETF XLE，它没有重新触及其低点，而是表现出色。这告诉我，WTI将反弹，当它反弹时，这将加剧XLE的反弹，它将再次起飞。”
不过，他警告称，如果西德克萨斯中质原油跌破每桶65.20美元，石油市场可能进入熊市。
长期而言看涨
价格期货集团(Price Futures Group)的菲尔•弗林(Phil Flynn)和AMCP投资组合经理杰伊•哈特菲尔德(Jay Hatfield)表示，尽管疫情在短期带来不利影响，但长期油价前景仍看涨。如果新冠肺炎疫情担忧缓解,那么全球石油库存下降的报道应该点燃油价的反弹。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Wall Street Bullish align="justify"> Oil prices fell align="justify"> According to the IEA, last month's demand slump clocked in at 120K bbl/day, and has forecast that growth would drop by ~500K bbl/day during the second half of the year compared to the group's previous estimate.
The good news: The IEA has raised its oil price outlook for 2022.
Global oil demand is now seen rising 5.3 mb/d align="justify"> Meanwhile, investors are still trying to determine whether the recent call by the Biden administration for OPEC producers, but not U.S. producers, to pump more oil is bullish or bearish.
"This sent mixed messages to the market and this disjointed flip-flopping energy policy has both critics and supporters of the administration scratching their heads," Phil Flynn at Price Future has told the WSJ.
Here's a dive into what a cross-section of other Wall Street experts are saying about the oil price outlook.
An Institutional Investor Hall of Famer is warning that certain sectors of the U.S. market are in bubble territory and has urged investors to quickly diversify to groups that have pricing power in an inflationary environment.
Richard Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, is waving the red flag align="justify"> "We are right in maybe the biggest bubble of my career," Bernstein has told CNBC.
"The Fed has so distorted the long-end of the curve that we are seeing a very natural reaction among long-duration assets which is then taking align="justify"> Bernstein recommends investing in Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) and Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB).
"I find it very interesting that energy over the last six or 12 months has been in a major bull market and everybody says it's unsustainable. Bitcoin has been in a major bear market, and everybody is waiting for it to come back."
Related: China Continues To Tap Crude Reserves Despite Plunge In Refining Activity
Energy Sector Still Investable
In an interview with CNBC's Trading Nation, Tocqueville Asset Management portfolio manager John Petrides says the energy sector remains investable due to rising earnings and the simple fact that the world will continue using fossil fuels for decades. Over the past two quarters, oil and gas companies have posted the biggest earnings growth thanks to improved commodity prices. Petrides also points out that energy is under-owned and undervalued since it makes up align="justify"> More importantly, he points out that many oil companies have increased their dividends, which can act as a big draw in this low-yield environment. He recommends Chevron (NYSE:CVX), calling it "a beacon of safety" within a volatile oil market.
Regarding the oil price outlook, Petrides has predicted another oil rally:
"In the most recent pullback, crude oil went back down and retested its July lows, but if you look at the XLE, the energy stock ETF, it did not retest its lows, it outperformed. That's telling me that WTI is going to bounce back, and when it does, that will exacerbate the rally in the XLE, and it will take off again."
Petrides has, however, cautioned that the oil market could enter bear territory if WTI breaks below the $65.20 level.
Long-Term Bullish
Phil Flynn of The Price Futures Group and AMCP portfolio manager Jay Hatfield have said that the long-term oil price outlook remains bullish despite the short-term headwinds posed by the pandemic.
"If COVID concerns ease a bit, then reports of falling global oil inventories should ignite another rally," Phil Flynn has said.
