据油价网2021年8月16日报道，在8月份这样一个历来新闻报道较少的月份，任何相对重大的事件都会得到大量报道。 然而，政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的最新报告不仅仅是一个相对重要的事件。 根据媒体报道，这是一个意义重大的事件。 其重要性在于一个严峻的警告：放弃化石燃料，否则就会毁灭地球。IPCC的报告基本上是说，如果我们不立即采取行动，我们将永远无法将全球气候变暖限制在前工业化时代的2摄氏度以内。IPCC 报告还指出，人类活动给地球造成的一些变化已经是不可逆转的。
在对这份报告的评论中，联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示：“这份报告必须为煤炭和化石燃料敲响丧钟，否则它们会摧毁我们的星球。”他补充说：“各国也应该停止所有新的化石燃料勘探和生产，并将提供给化石燃料的补贴转向可再生能源。”
报告说，全球必须立即以有序和透明的方式逐步减少化石燃料供应，停止高风险、高成本的石油和天然气勘探。
这些反应——尤其是联合国秘书长古特雷斯呼吁结束所有石油和天然气勘探——听起来相当熟悉。 原因是它们呼应了国际能源署（IEA）不久前发出的呼吁，即在2021年底前停止所有新的石油和天然气勘探。 IEA在其净零路线图中呼吁，由于可替代能源的可用性，石油和天然气的需求将迅速下降。
然而，在上述报告发布后不久，呼吁停止所有石油和天然气勘探的IEA又发出了另一个呼吁，这次是向欧佩克发出的。IEA要求欧佩克开始增产，这是因为燃料需求反弹速度快于预期，推动油价走高。
美国总统拜登设定的目标是到2050年前使美国经济实现净零排放，到2030年前将排放削减50%。拜登本周还呼吁欧佩克提高产量。 原因是：对美国司机来说，加油站的燃料价格太高了。
IEA和白宫发出的信息往好了说可能令人困惑，往坏了说可能是虚伪。 但我们假设世界上的每一家石油公司都有可能同时决定停止开采石油。 然后会发生什么?
简而言之，当然是混乱。 较长的答案几乎涵盖了地球上任何经济体的每一个部分，几乎涵盖了每一个行业。 由于石油、天然气和石化产品的库存还未减少，油价就会因即将到来的供应中断而飙升，因此在全面影响开始显现之前还需要一段时间。 这意味着所有东西的价格都会上涨。
石油和天然气投资公司King作业公司首席执行官杰伊·R·杨说：“如果没有石油，iphone、技术、电脑、塑料，所有的制成品、食品和药品都将无法生产。当然，以阿米什生活方式生活的美国人受到的影响最小。”
杨说：“如果没有食物链和产品运输，我们整个社会就失去了生存的能力。 煤炭产量将继续增加，二氧化碳和污染将以惊人的速度增加。 数十亿人将会死亡，社会将会崩溃，向清洁未来的迁移将会结束。 ”
无论这样一种愿景是否来自石油行业，都很难反驳。 印度致力于让企业在环境上更可持续的CarbonFixers公司创始人和负责人Payal Rastogi说，“如果我们停止石油和天然气的消费和钻探; 从今天开始，全球所有的产品和生活都将停滞不前。”
总部位于美国犹他州的石油公司Petroteq 能源公司首席执行官贝利博士说，美国的石油供应只有一个月的量，如果停止生产石油，美国将立即陷入萧条，因为美国有大量工业依赖石油。
既然这对所有经济体都是如此，而不仅仅是美国，那么将预期的影响乘以世界上国家的数量，应该会提供一个完整的图景，但它将不会是一幅美好的的图景。
有人可能会说，这些都是石油行业人士的观点，但他们又很难以任何理性的方式反驳这些观点。真相是，现代文明依赖碳氢化合物。 摆脱这种依赖的转型不可能在一夜之间发生，也不可能因为后果而强行发生：突然戒除坏习惯是最难的方法，而且并不总是成功的方法。 如果我们能以一种更冷静、更少危言耸听的方式来实现转型，或许我们更有可能摆脱对石油和天然气的依赖。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
What Happens If We Stop Pumping Oil Tomorrow?
In a traditionally slow news month such as August, any event of relative significance gets abundant coverage. Yet the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel align="justify"> In comments align="justify"> The world must urgently wind down fossil fuel supply in an orderly and transparent way and halt high-risk high-cost oil and gas exploration today," said the founder and executive chair of Carbon Tracker.
These reactions—especially the UN's Guterres' call to end all oil and gas exploration—sound quite familiar. The reason is that they echo a call by the International Energy Agency for an end to all new oil and gas exploration before the end of 2021. The IEA made the call in its Net-Zero Roadmap, which saw demand for oil and gas decline fast because of the availability of alternative energy sources.
Soon after the report was released, however, the same International Energy Agency that called for the end of all oil and gas exploration made another call, this time to OPEC. The agency asked the cartel to start pumping more oil as demand for fuels was rebounding faster than expected, pushing prices higher.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who has set a goal to make the U.S. economy net-zero by 2050 and slash emissions by 50 percent by 2030, this week also called align="justify"> The messages coming from IEA and the White House might seem confusing, at best, and hypocritical, at worst. But let's say it was possible for every oil company in the world to decide at the same time to stop the pumps. What would happen then?
The short answer is, of course, chaos. The longer answer covers pretty much every part of any and every economy align="justify"> “If there was no oil, iPhones, technology, computers, plastics, all manufactured products, food and medicines would not be able to be produced," says Jay R. Young, CEO of King Operating Corporation, an oil and gas investment firm. "So the people in the United States living the Amish lifestyle would be impacted the least.
"We as a society have lost the ability to survive without the food chain and delivery of products. Coal would continue to increase and the CO2 and pollution would increase at a dramatically increasing rate. Billions would die, societies would fail, and the migration to a clean future would be over," Young says.
It would be difficult to argue with such a vision, regardless of whether it comes from the oil industry or not. Payal Rastogi, founder principal at CarbonFixers, an Indian company working with businesses to make them more environmentally sustainable, shares Young's opinion.
"If we stop consumption and drilling for oil and gas; as of today all the global products and life will come to stand still," she says.
The U.S. has align="justify"> Since this is true of all economies and not just the United States, multiplying the effect expected for it by the number of countries in the world should provide the full picture, which will not be pretty.
One might perhaps argue that these are the opinions of people from the oil industry but it would be difficult to counter these opinions in any rational way. The truth is that modern civilization is dependent on hydrocarbons. A transition away from this dependence cannot happen overnight and it cannot happen forcibly because of the fallout: quitting cold turkey is the hardest way to kick a bad habit and not always successful. Maybe we have a better chance of weaning ourselves off oil and gas if we approach the transition in a calmer, less alarmist manner.
