据今日油价8月17日报道，石油市场本周开盘承压，因对德尔塔病毒蔓延影响需求的担忧令价格承压，市场继续进行投机性的长期清算。然而，具有讽刺意味的是，周三，石油市场得到了一个意想不到消息提振，即美国宣布，正在恳求欧佩克+成员国增加石油产量，以遏制国内汽油价格上涨带来的通胀压力。
白宫的这一宣布自然是为了像过去几届政府那样压低油价，但实际上恰恰相反，当石油市场看穿了这一隐秘的企图时，同时引发了包括行业说客、“气候科学家”、进步派和保守派在内的各方批评。首先，欧佩克+，其中非常重要的沙特阿拉伯，不太可能回应美国对更多原油供应的呼吁，因为石油生产国们已经完全同意将其供应策略按计划执行到位。因此，石油市场认为这一呼吁的效果微乎其微，导致了无情的金融石油市场在周三强劲上涨。
更具有讽刺意味的是，在声明宣布之前，油价实际上一直呈下降趋势，但随着全球最大的石油消费国显示出其在油价上涨、尤其是消费者通胀飙升方面的政治脆弱性，油价却找到了新的动力来源。除了使短期的石油势头回升，欧佩克+的请求也激怒了美国和加拿大的石油生产商，因为北美有大量的可用产能，而不是增加对中东石油的依赖。此外，不仅北美的石油没有被消费，而且拜登政府还通过取消Keystone XL输油管道和禁止在联邦土地上钻探等方式有意扼杀了这些石油产能。
“绿色”能源难题
也许更重要的是，向欧佩克+呼吁降低美国汽油价格，让人们清楚地看到了“绿色”的成本，但最终可能会非常昂贵。毕竟，在加州等地，原油成本在加油站零售价中所占的比例越来越小。要知道，在脱碳和“绿色”政策方面，加州是美国的领先者。
普通汽油的平均成本明显高于全国平均水平。事实上，看看加州最近每加仑4.35美元的价格，这相当于每桶183美元，或超过布伦特原油成本的2.5倍。那么，零售汽油价格为何会大幅上涨呢?
首先，加州要求非常严格的特定级别的汽油，即CARBOB，它比美国其他地方的要求更严格，旨在解决该州的空气质量问题。这减少了加州的汽油供应池，因为不是所有的炼油厂都能生产这种规格的油品，同时也增加了炼油厂的生产成本。除了更严格的规格，联邦和州的可再生能源信用额度今年一直在飙升，这给加油站的价格增加了更多的上行动力，因为这些成本的很大一部分转嫁到了消费者身上。
或许更重要的是，可再生能源信贷的大幅增长，促使美国炼油厂关闭原油产能，转而生产可再生燃料。因此，美国的可运营炼油能力低于疫情前，但可再生能源设施仍在建设中。因此，成品油正面临供应紧张和价格上涨的压力。
展望未来
石油市场下周的局势将喜忧参半。从看涨的方面看，布伦特原油现货合约在本周上行时重拾70美元/桶的重要关口，但另一方面，市场仍低于其20日移动均线。从宏观上看，通胀仍是消费者、政界人士和投资者的主要担忧点。
本周，政府呼吁欧佩克+增加石油产量，降低汽油价格，这一动态得到了充分展示。不过，大家并不期望欧佩克+改变其已经同意的增产路线，因此，预计油价可能会保持在高位，而美国的收支平衡将保持紧张。此外，这种局势可能会重新激发大型资产管理公司推动的大宗商品指数流动，要知道，今年这些资产管理公司对石油市场而言非常重要。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Why The U.S. Is So Vulnerable To Rising Oil Prices
Oil markets started off the week under pressure as continued speculative “long” liquidation amid delta variant demand concerns weighed align="justify"> The White House announcement was naturally intended to pressure oil prices lower as has worked under past administrations but instead the opposite occurred as the oil market saw right through the veiled attempt (while spurring criticism from all sides including industry lobbyists, "climate scientists", progressives and conservatives). For starters, OPEC+ and more importantly Saudi Arabia, are unlikely to answer US's calls for more crude oil as they already have a fully agreed to plan in place. such, the oil market rightly interpreted the desperate plea as coming from a place of weakness and not strength which led to strong gains in the notoriously unforgiving financial oil markets align="justify"> Adding to the irony, oil prices had actually been trending lower prior to the announcement but consequently found a new source of strength as the world’s biggest oil consumer showed its political vulnerability to higher oil prices and more specifically skyrocketing consumer inflation. In addition to shifting the short-term oil momentum back to the upside, the plea to OPEC+ also enraged oil producers in the US and Canada given there is plenty of capacity available in North America that can be called upon rather than increasing dependency align="justify"> The "green" energy conundrum
This outrage should come as no surprise as increased oil production undermines the push to decarbonize economies and reduces the incentive to shift away from fossil fuels and towards electric vehicles, a key part of the current administration’s agenda.
Perhaps more importantly though, the plea to OPEC+ to lower US gasoline prices shines a bright light align="justify"> As you can see in Figure 2 below, the average cost of regular gasoline is significantly more expensive than the national average. In fact, looking at the most recent price of $4.35 per gallon in California, that equates to a cost of $183 per barrel, or more than 2.5x the cost of Brent crude oil. So why the huge mark-up in retail gasoline prices?
For starters, California requires a very strict and specific grade of gasoline known as CARBOB, that has tighter specifications than the rest of the US meant to address air quality issues in the state. This reduces the gasoline supply pool for California as not all refiners can produce the specifications while also increasing the cost of production for refiners. In addition to tighter specs, federal and state renewable credits have been soaring this year, adding even more upwards pressure to prices at the pump as a large portion of these costs are passed align="justify"> Perhaps more importantly, the huge run-up in renewable credits has US oil refiners shutting crude oil capacity in favor of renewable fuels production. As a result, the US has less operable refining capacity than it did prior to the pandemic, but the renewable facilities are still under construction. As such, the refined products are experiencing supply tightness and upward pressure align="justify"> Looking Forward
Looking forward, the oil market is heading into next week with a mixed technical picture. align="justify"> This dynamic was on full display this week as the Biden administration's pleaded for OPEC+ to pump more oil and reduce gasoline prices. As we explained though, we do not expect OPEC+ to change course on its already agreed to production increases and, as such, we expect oil prices will likely stay high and US balances will remain tight. Furthermore, this dynamic could work to reignite inflation-driven commodity index flows from large asset managers that have been so important to the oil market this year.
