据今日油价8月18日报道，加拿大油砂生产商可能马上就会发现，当多年来的第一条新管道最早在下个月投入使用时，管道容量限制将得到缓解。
加拿大管道公司Enbridge上周在提交给加拿大能源监管机构的一份文件中表示，其在美国的3号线替换项目可能在未来30至60天内完成，这将使3号线替换管道最早于2021年9月15日开始服务。
Enbridge的3号线替换项目将在北达科他州13英里、明尼苏达州337英里和威斯康星州14英里处用36英寸的新管道替换现有的34英寸管道。3号线更换后的年平均运力计划为76万桶/天，与原来的3号线相比增加了37万桶/天。
3号线的替代管道已经在加拿大投入使用，但还没有在美国投入使用。明尼苏达州新的3号线于2020年12月开始建设。该项目在明尼苏达州已经完成了80%。但是，管道的建成仍然面临着环保主义者和一些民族团体的反对，他们继续起诉Enbridge和明尼苏达州，要求颁布禁令保护管道沿线的土地、水和农作物。
根据CER最新的《加拿大管道系统2021》报告，与原定2018年投入使用的日期相比，3号线的替换已经晚了三年，预计将在今年第四季度满负荷运行。
由于Keystone XL输油管道已被废弃，包括3号线替换和Trans Mountain扩建项目在内的拟议输油管道服役日期的推迟，给加拿大基准油价带来了压力。不过多年来，在产量不断上升的同时，运营商同样有能力将原油运出阿尔伯塔省。
CER在其报告中称，2019年，加拿大原油产量平均为490万桶/天，油砂产量在2015年至2019年期间跃升25%。
该监管机构指出，2015年至2020年期间，加拿大西部精选原油(WCS)相对于美国基准WTI原油的折扣平均为15.27美元/桶。WCS是加拿大在阿尔伯塔省哈迪斯蒂交付的油砂的基准价格。2018年10月，由于产量超过了管道和铁路运输的能力，这一价差一度飙升至50美元/桶。艾伯塔省要求全地区减产，并优化了现有管道流量，以应对运力不足。
2020年，随着疫情的爆发，加拿大原油产量下降，缓解了一些压力，但加拿大的原油产量仍将增长。因此，至少拥有一条新管道，这对加拿大运营商将产品运往炼油市场至关重要。
如果3号线的替代管线在一个月内投入使用，将是加拿大石油业提高其运输能力的最佳机会。然而，该项目继续面临挑战。
本月初，Ojibwe部落的White Earth Band起诉明尼苏达州，声称该州侵犯了野生水稻的权利。野生水稻拥有固有的生存、繁荣、再生和进化的权利，需要被保护。”
Enbridge表示，“3号线的施工许可包括了专门保护野生稻水的条件。事实上，输油管道与明尼苏达州最神圣、最高产的野生水稻共存了70多年。”
3号线离成功最近的一个关卡还存在挑战。对于加拿大石油出口来说，另一个潜在的重大产能问题是对Enbridge正在运营的5号管道穿越五大湖的挑战。Enbridge正在与密歇根州进行调解，后者希望关闭输油管道，调解工作预计将在8月底完成。
IHS Markit预计，2020年至2030年期间，加拿大原油供应将增加近90万桶/天，因此新的管道产能对加拿大石油行业至关重要。
产量增长即将到来，运输能力需要跟上增长的步伐。IHS Markit估计，仅到2025年，原油总流量就可能比疫情前的水平增加65万桶/天以上。
IHS Markit副总裁兼加拿大石油市场首席分析师Kevin Birn表示，“现有基础设施的任何破坏都可能对加拿大，乃至更广泛的北美能源安全系统产生重大影响。”
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Canada Could Boost Oil Pipeline Capacity As Soon As September
Canada’s oil sands producers may find welcome relief to years of pipeline capacity constraints when the first new pipeline in years could enter into service as early as next month.
Enbridge said in a filing with the Canada Energy Regulator last week that its Line 3 replacement program in the United States “could be completed within the next 30 to 60 days which will allow the Line 3 replacement pipeline to commence service as early as September 15, 2021.”
Enbridge’s Line 3 Replacement project will replace the existing 34-inch pipe with new 36-inch pipe for 13 miles in North Dakota, 337 miles in Minnesota, and 14 miles in Wisconsin. The average annual capacity of Line 3 after replacement is planned to be 760,000 barrels per day (bpd), which would be a capacity increase of 370,000 bpd compared to the capacity of the original Line 3.
The Line 3 replacement is already in service in Canada, but it is not yet operational in the United States. Construction of the new Line 3 in Minnesota started in December 2020. The project is already 80 percent completed in Minnesota, Enbridge says.
But the completion of the pipeline still faces opposition from environmentalists and first nation groups, which continue to sue Enbridge and the state of Minnesota, asking for injunctions to protect lands, water, and crops along the pipeline route.
The Line 3 replacement is already three years late compared to its original proposed in-service date, 2018, and it is expected to begin operations at full capacity in the fourth quarter of this year, according to the CER’s latest report Canada’s Pipeline System 2021.
The delays in the proposed pipelines’ in-service dates, including Line 3 replacement and the Trans Mountain Expansion project now that Keystone XL is dead and buried, have weighed align="justify"> In 2019, Canada’s crude oil production averaged 4.9 million bpd, with oil sands output jumping by 25 percent between 2015 and 2019, the CER said in its report.
The discount of Western Canadian Select (WCS) – the benchmark price of oil from Canada’s oil sands delivered at Hardisty, Alberta – relative to the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude averaged US$15.27 per barrel between 2015 and 2020, the regulator noted. This differential soared to as much as US$50 a barrel align="justify"> Lowered production in 2020 with the pandemic eased some of the pressure, but Canada’s crude oil production is set to grow. So, at least align="justify"> The Line 3 replacement, if it becomes operational in a month, would be the best immediate chance for Canada’s oil industry to boost its takeaway capacity. Yet, the project continues to face challenges.
Earlier this month, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe tribe sued Minnesota, claiming that the state is violating the rights of wild rice, which “possesses inherent rights to exist, flourish, regenerate, and evolve, as well as inherent rights to restoration, recovery, and preservation.”
Enbridge says that “Line 3 construction permits include conditions that specifically protect wild rice waters. As a matter of fact Enbridge pipelines have coexisted with Minnesota’s most sacred and productive wild rice stands for over seven decades.”
Line 3 may be very close to the final hurdle, but it hasn’t passed it yet.
The threat to Enbridge’s operational Line 5 pipeline through the Great Lakes is another potential major capacity issue to Canadian oil exports. Enbridge is engaged in a mediation with the state of Michigan, which wants the pipeline shut down, and the mediation is expected to be completed by the end of August.
New pipeline capacity is crucial to Canada’s oil industry as crude supply is expected to increase by almost 900,000 bpd between 2020 and 2030, IHS Markit has estimated.
“That growth is coming, and transportation capacity is needed to keep pace. IHS Markit estimates that, by just 2025, total crude movements could increase by more than 650,000 barrels per day from pre-pandemic levels,” said Kevin Birn, vice president and chief Canadian oil market analyst, IHS Markit.
“Any disruption of existing infrastructure could have significant implications for Canada, the broader North American system and energy security,” Birn said.
