据世界管道8月16日报道，根据全球领先的数据分析公司GlobalData表示，与之前的价格周期相比，新钻机投入新开发的速度大大降低。大多数美国页岩生产商在生产和资本指导方面都比较保守，因为优先考虑的仍然是保护资产负债表和创造自由现金流。对于许多运营商来说，这导致了在过去6个月里已钻未完井(DUC)库存的减少，以减少资本支出，同时保持生产水平。
GlobalData上游油气分析师Steven Ho评论道，由于德尔塔变体，一些地区经济复苏速度的不确定性，以及OPEC+2021年逐步增加产量的决定，预计将限制油价。然而，由于生产商在 2021 年剩余时间内实施的对冲策略，至少有三分之一的美国非常规生产受到保护，不会受到价格下跌的影响。同时，这意味着一些运营商无法在任何时候受益高于预期的现货价格，因为他们的对冲有效地限制了他们可以获得的最高价格。
目前，美国国内石油日均产量约为110亿桶，至少占炼油厂投入的74%。净进口量保持相对稳定，2021年日均29亿桶，2020年为28亿桶，但仍低于2019年大流行前的38.5亿桶。这主要是由于石油产品库存的增加，用于满足部分需求的增长。
Ho继续道，总之，2021年原油需求稳步增长，标志着美国经济复苏。由于汽油一直是石油需求的主要驱动力，疫苗接种工作无疑已转化为美国旅游活动的增加。在过去六个月中，汽油供应量略高于87亿桶/日，较2020年的平均81亿桶/日增长7%。尽管如此，石油需求复苏的速度和石油价格的稳定性仍存在不确定性。
在整个疫情期间，美国页岩生产商在产量水平方面表现得相当保守，更重要的是，他们没有对油价上涨做出过快反应。运营商正在利用他们的DUC库存来维持生产水平，并将保护资本支出作为他们的首选策略。 因此，运营中的钻机数量对价格上涨的反应并不像过去其他价格回升的情况那样强烈。页岩生产商也认识到油气市场的波动性，并受到投资者的鼓励，以对冲其生产。这将保护他们免受下行风险，同时也限制了他们出售产品的最高价格。
Ho补充道，美国页岩似乎正在寻找一种保持弹性的方法，并为任何时候石油需求需要从非常规开发中获得更多原油做好准备。运营商现在需要采取更低的价格方案，并倾向于以成本效益高的方式运营。他们还必须解决对维持自由现金流产生的担忧，继续实施最佳对冲策略，降低债务水平，以及实现碳减排目标。此外，整个页岩行业预计将出现更多的整合，大型公司可以收购规模较小的运营商，目前这些运营商的资产负债表总体上更健康，可以提高大公司的竞争力。
郝芬 译自 世界管道
原文如下：
Globaldata: US shale producers remain disciplined despite high oil prices
The speed at which new rigs are put to new developments is considerably less than in previous price cycles. Most US shale producers are being conservative in their production and capital guidance, as priorities remain around protecting balance sheets and generating free cash flow. For many operators, this has led to a drawdown of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) inventory wells in the past six months, to reduce capital expenditure while maintaining production levels, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Steven Ho, Upstream Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Uncertainty around the pace of economic recovery in some regions due to the Delta variant, and OPEC+’s decision to gradually increase output throughout 2021, is expected to restrict oil price. However, at least a third of US unconventional production is protected against a drop in price due to producers hedging strategies that are in place for the remainder of 2021. At the same time, this means that some operators are not able to benefit whenever there is a higher-than-expected spot price, as their hedging effectively puts a cap align="justify"> US domestic production is currently averaging around 11 000 million bpd, accounting for at least 74% of the input into refineries. Net import volume remains relatively stable, averaging at 2900 million bpd in 2021 compared to 2800 million bpd in 2020, but remain lower than the pre-pandemic level of 3850 million bpd in 2019. This is mainly due to a build-up of petroleum products stock inventory that has been used to meet some of the increase in demand.
Ho continues: “All in all, the demand for crude oil has been steadily growing during 2021, signalling the recovery of the US economy. The vaccination efforts have definitely translated into a higher traveling activity in the US, as gasoline has been the main driver in oil demand. Over the past six months, supply for gasoline is a little over 8700 million bpd, representing a growth of 7% over the average of 8100 million bpd in 2020. Nonetheless, there is still uncertainty align="justify"> Throughout the pandemic, US shale producers have behaved rather conservatively with respect to production levels and, more importantly, they have not reacted too quickly to the increase in oil price. Operators are utilising their DUCs inventory to maintain production level, as well as protecting capital spending as their preferred strategy. As a result, the number of rigs in operation has not reacted as strongly to the price rally, as in other past instances of a price recovery. Shale producers also recognise the volatility in the oil and gas market and are encouraged by investors to hedge their production. This will protect them against a downside risk, while also capping the maximum price at which they sell their production.
Ho adds: “US shale appears to be finding a way to remain resilient and prepared for whenever oil demand requires more crude oil from unconventional developments. Operators will now need to assume a lower price scenario and favour operating in a cost-efficient manner. They also must address concerns around sustaining the generation of free cash flow, keep implementing optimal hedging strategies, reduce debt levels, as well as meeting their carbon reduction targets. Moreover, there is an expectation for increased consolidation across the shale sector where bigger companies can acquire smaller operators, which now are generally healthier in their balance sheet, and can increase the competitiveness of larger companies.”
