据Oil & Gas Journal网站6月8日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）在6月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中上调了未来几个月布伦特原油价格预期。EIA目前预计，布伦特原油价格在6月份平均为69美元/桶，2021年第三季度平均为68美元/桶，分别比上月的预测高出4美元/桶和5美元/桶。但随着预测全球石油供应缓慢超过石油需求增长，预计2021年晚些时候和2022年将出现更大的油价下行压力。
王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal
EIA raises oil price forecast for June, Q3 2021
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent price forecast for the coming months. EIA now expect Brent prices to average $69/bbl in June and $68/bb in third-quarter 2021, $4/bbl and $5/bbl higher, respectively, than last month’s forecast. But larger downward oil price pressures are expected to emerge later in 2021 and into 2022 as forecast global oil supply outpaces slowing oil demand growth.
This price forecast keeps prices near or slightly below current levels through the third quarter and incorporates recent price increases and EIA’s forecast of mostly balanced oil markets in the coming months.
Given announced increases in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), EIA expects production to grow more rapidly in second-half 2021 to keep pace with rising demand. In the forecast, global oil consumption rises by 2.8 million b/d from second-quarter to second-half 2021 while global oil production rises 4.3 million b/d during the same period, balancing the 1.5 million b/d of global oil inventory draws during the second quarter.
EIA noted, however, that the forecast “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.”