据Oil Now 4月3日报道，经过数月的谨慎宣讲，并一直宣称现在不是提高石油产量的合适时机，但于4月1日欧佩克及其合作伙伴突然达成协议，同意放宽配额，并在7月前将日产量增加200万桶。
此举是押注欧佩克+联盟能够逐步收回部分失去的市场份额，即便全球经济正面临着从这场疫情中复苏的不平衡。
沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王说，这些增长将分阶段在每个月进行，如果市场状况恶化，该联盟保留根据实际进行修改的权利。事实上，欧佩克+部长们计划在5月第一次增产措施生效之前，于4月28日再次开会，审查他们的决定。
“今天的决定无非是愿意考验我们的勇气，考验我们调整和应对局势的制度。”欧佩克+会议结束后阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王对记者说。
欧佩克+联盟将在5月份将日产量上限提高35万桶，6月份再提高35万桶，7月份再提高44.1万桶。
与此同时，沙特阿拉伯将在5月份每天25万桶，6月份每天35万桶，7月份每天40万桶的基础上，在配额之外再削减100万桶，以帮助支撑市场。
这一令人惊讶的决定仍导致上月布伦特原油期货上涨近4%，至每桶65美元以上。此前，由于欧佩克+成员国就其期权展开辩论，当天早些时候布伦特原油期货交易出现波动。
市场分析认为：“我们相信，第二季度和第三季度连续平仓的看涨平衡将使价格坚挺，强劲的基本面和通货再膨胀贸易将使原油价格在6-7月升至每桶75-76美元的新高点。”
值得注意的电话
在会议开始前，分析师们的共识是该联盟将继续进行减产，以保持市场供应紧张，即使在需求复苏的情况下也有供应紧缩的风险。
实际上，在会议召开的前一天，欧佩克+的一个主要技术委员会就表示，对2021年全球石油需求增长的估计值从先前的590万桶/日下调了5％至560万桶/日。
阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王在对欧佩克+会议的开幕致辞中敦促成员国保持纪律，以使市场恢复到疫情前的健康状态。
他对同行说：“除非有不可否认的复苏迹象，否则我们应保持这种谨慎态度。全球形势远非均衡，复苏远未完成。”
但他同时表示，该集团仍将保持灵活性，并承认由于欧佩克+方面迄今为止的减产，市场已经获得了“稳定的基础”，这或许暗示了未来的形势。
他指出，尽管美国和英国的大规模疫苗接种取得了积极成果，但欧盟仍在努力应对新冠肺炎感染率上升的问题。
他说：“这还需要灵活性，并且要对市场需求做出响应。”
枢纽会议
最初，欧佩克+的部长们就展期的时间长度展开了辩论。参与谈判的消息人士称，阿尔及利亚提议将目前的削减延长两个月，而其他国家则倾向于延长。
消息人士称，阿联酋提倡逐步削减配额，但能源部长马哈苏伊（Suhail al-Mazrouei）不反对为期一个月的过渡。
然后出乎意料的是，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王对部长们是否愿意增加产量进行了民意调查，并提出了在三个月内逐步实现产量的计划。
俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦在前几个月已经获得了配额的小幅增长，但分配的份额却较小。每月剩余的增长将按比例在其余成员中按比例分配，包括沙特阿拉伯，沙特阿拉伯也将削减其额外削减。
阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王说，他仍然保持非常谨慎的前景，但是措施的放松是有条不紊的，不会引起市场的不安。
他说，随着夏季空调需求的增加，中东地区的国内原油消费量也会上升，因此沙特阿拉伯返回的原油中有一大部分不会出口。
俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克（Alexander Novak）表示，即使配额放松，在2-3个月内，仍应消除比2015-2019年目标平均水平高出约5000万至6000万桶的全球石油库存过剩。
他在会议上说，石油市场目前处于每天200万桶的赤字状态。
陈可可 摘译自Oil Now
原文如下：
OPEC+ throws caution to the wind with agreement to add over 2 million b/d to the market by July
After months of preaching caution and saying the time was not right to raise oil production, OPEC and its partners abruptly agreed The move is a bet that the OPEC+ alliance can gradually reclaim some of its lost market share, even as the global economy faces an uneven recovery from the pandemic.
The increases will be phased in each month, and the alliance reserves the right to U-turn if market conditions deteriorate, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. In fact, OPEC+ ministers are planning to meet again April 28 to review their decision, before the first increment goes into effect in May.
“The decision today is nothing more than to be willing to test our guts and test our system of tweaking and attending to the situation,” Prince Abdulaziz told reporters after the OPEC+ meeting.
The OPEC+ alliance will raise its collective output caps by 350,000 b/d in May, another 350,000 b/d in June, and 441,000 b/d in July.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia, which has been cutting an extra 1 million b/d The surprise decision still saw front-month Brent futures rise almost 4% to above $65/b in the wake of the meeting after choppy trading earlier in the day as OPEC+ members debated their options.
“We believe bullish balances with sequential draws in the second and third quarters will firm up prices, with alignment between strong fundamentals and reflation trade lifting crude to fresh highs of $75-$76/b Brent in June-July.”
Notable phone callsGoing into the meeting, the consensus among analysts was that the alliance was headed for another rollover of its cuts, to keep the market tight, even at the risk of a supply squeeze as demand recovers.
In fact, a day before the meeting, a key OPEC+ technical committee said it was lowering its estimate of 2021 global oil demand growth by 5% to 5.6 million b/d from the previously forecast 5.9 million b/d.
And in his opening remarks to the OPEC+ meeting, Prince Abdulaziz urged his counterparts to stay disciplined in their mission to bring the market back to its pre-pandemic health.
“Until the evidence of recovery is undeniable, we should maintain this cautious stance,” he told his counterparts. “The global picture is far from even and the recovery is far from complete.”
But in perhaps a hint of what was to come, he also said the group would remain flexible and acknowledged that the market had gained “stable footing” due to the OPEC+ cuts to date.
While the US and UK are seeing positive results from their mass vaccinations, the EU was still struggling with rising COVID-19 infection rates, he noted.
“Steering the ship in these current conditions where different scenarios are playing out in various regions of the world requires a steady hand Pivoting in the meeting
Initially, OPEC+ ministers debated the length of a rollover. Algeria proposed a two-month extension of the current cuts, while other countries preferred The UAE advocated a gradual easing of the cuts, but energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei was not opposed to a Then in a surprise move, Prince Abdulaziz polled the ministers Russia and Kazakhstan, which had already been granted modest rises in their quotas in previous months, would be allocated a smaller portion of the increase. The rest of each month’s increase will be divided up proportionally among the rest of the members, including Saudi Arabia, which would also pare back its extra cut.
Prince Abdulaziz said he still maintains a very cautious outlook, but the easing of the cuts was being done in a measured way that should not upset the market.
Middle Eastern domestic crude consumption should rise with air conditioning demand in the summer, so a chunk of Saudi Arabia’s returned production will not be exported, he said.
In addition, countries that have exceeded their quotas previously will be required to make so-called compensation cuts by September to make their compliance whole – a contentious issue that caused some tensions in the talks, sources said. The required compensation cuts total just above 3 million b/d.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that even with the relaxed quotas, a global oil inventory overhang of about 50 million to 60 million barrels above the 2015-2019 targeted average should be eliminated within 2-3 months.
The oil market was currently in a 2 million b/d deficit, he said in the meeting.
