当然，这些都不是铁板钉钉的时期，未来三周的能源价格也可能朝任何一个方向走。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)预计，到第一季度末，布伦特原油价格将升至每桶70美元。与此同时，高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，到第三季度，全球原油基准价格将达到每桶75美元。
从背景来看，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯一直能够控制住竞争，并坚持承诺减产。总而言之，欧佩克+仍保留着超过600万桶/天的石油储备产能。因此，根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)最新的月度报告，全球石油库存将在年中回到5年平均水平。去年夏天，随着需求大幅下降，全球石油库存一度创下历史纪录。
如果油价进入抛售阶段，SK Dixit驻印度Kolkata的分析师Sunil Kumar Dixit给出了一些线索，他认为WTI将低至每桶51.60美元，布伦特原油低至每桶58.30美元
王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com
Close Of Stimulus Window Might Be Cue For Oil Correction
Newton’s Law says what goes up, must come down. Those long oil don’t want to hear that, of course.
Like the proverbial multi-lived cat, the rally in crude oil has outlasted The far from desirable pace of the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and the fragility of the US recovery from the pandemic are two examples of cautionary developments that have not bothered oil bulls What’s notable is the indifference shown by the long-oil community to the anemic demand for gasoline, jet fuel and heavy fuel oils as the world continues to take fewer drives, flights and cruises, respectively, compared to a year ago.
This same group instead points to the weekly drawdowns in US crude seen since the end of January. The declines in crude inventories are occurring as refiners max out fuel products in anticipation of more demand in the coming months based Except for China—and to an extent, India—the rest of the world, especially the United States, is seeing more implied demand from refiners than demand ultimately from end-users of fuels. Yet, prices of both crude and fuel products like gasoline are trading at pre-pandemic highs.
This isn’t to say oil traders have completely ignored all the negatives in the market.
Last Friday, benchmark prices fell their most in a single day since mid-January, with US West Texas Intermediate crude losing 2% and London’s Brent 1.6%, But such price declines are few and far between the otherwise humongous gains that have bloated the value of WTI and Brent by at least 70% since the end of October.
Each Slide Followed By Even Higher Rally
Often, any considerable slide in prices is offset by an even greater rally in the subsequent session or two. Friday’s selloff, for instance, was eclipsed by Monday’s 4% jump in WTI In fact, it’s expectations over this stimulus, combined with the bond-buying bonanza and near-zero interest rates of the Federal Reserve since the start of the pandemic, that has created a flood of cheap money in the markets. The result has been an overpowering rally in equities to commodities of almost all kinds, from buying generated by investors of all types, from day-traders to hedge funds and institutional money managers.
Since this gravy train is what has been keeping the commodities rally chugging, it’s likely that its run might also hit a bump when the flow of money to the markets reaches some sort of a temporal peak set in the minds of investors.
In practical terms, a correction in oil might be triggered Biden has been laser-focused of the past two days—have thrown their lot in with the president.
Mid-March Target For Stimulus Might Be Cue For Oil
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has set Mar. 14 as his target for Biden’s COVID-19 bill to be signed into law. That might also be the target for the oil rally to reach a temporal peak, and for an appreciable retreat to set in.
Of course, none of this is cast in stone, and energy prices could go either way over the next three weeks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Brent up as high as $70 by the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, thinks the global crude benchmark will reach $75 by the third quarter.
Potential crude stockpile builds over the next week or two might weigh There’s also the other big question Of course, the big “if” for this will be whether the Islamic Republic will first meet Biden’s demand to stop all uranium-enrichment—i.e. nuclear-bomb making—efforts to be considered for a deal by the White House.
“This increases our conviction in a tight oil market this summer, when we expect OECD inventories to normalize,” it added, referring to stockpiles in the world’s most developed countries.
Adding To Worries: New OPEC+ Deal; What $65 Oil Could Do For US Shale
The OPEC+ output referenced by Goldman Sachs circles back to the observations made earlier this week by my colleague Geoffrey Smith That article notes that Russia is already pushing for a big increase in output at next week’s monthly review of the production pact of the enlarged Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC+, which Moscow is a leading ally of.
When the bloc meets in April to set new output levels, its leader Saudi Arabia will inevitably want to reverse a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels a day that the kingdom enacted to preserve a unity that was already cracking a month ago.
For context, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been able to keep their rivalry under control and have stuck to their pledged output cuts. In all, OPEC+ is still withholding over 6 million barrels a day of oil production capacity in reserve. As a result, world stockpiles, which hit record levels as demand plummeted last summer, are due to be back at their five-year average by the middle of the year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report.
OPEC+ increases could spur US shale drillers to raise for the first time in a year their production, which has been Should oil enter a selloff phase, how low could it go technically?
Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, gives some clues, pegging WTI to as low of $51.60 and Brent at $58.30.