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石油价格上涨 市场前景看好

   2021-02-24 3240
核心提示:据2月23日Rigzone报道,由于投资银行和交易员预测市场将进一步收紧,推高了油价,油价上涨至每桶63美元。周二,纽约期货市场上涨

据2月23日Rigzone报道,由于投资银行和交易员预测市场将进一步收紧,推高了油价,油价上涨至每桶63美元。

周二,纽约期货市场上涨1.3%,前一交易日涨幅超过4%。根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的数据,市场正走向至少是2000年以来最紧张的一个季度,而Socar Trading SA认为,由于新冠肺炎疫情期间积累的过剩库存将在夏季枯竭,全球基准布伦特原油价格今年将达到每桶80美元。

托克集团(Trafigura Group)表示,随着全球大部分地区摆脱封锁限制,美国石油产量在大幅冻结后的减产也将有助于市场坚挺。在寒流导致一些最大的炼油厂面临缓慢而混乱的重启之后,从亚洲流向美国的燃料将有所增加。

在沙特阿拉伯承诺在2月和3月单方面额外削减每日100万桶石油后,石油价格今年大幅上涨。高盛集团预计,随着需求超过全球供应,油价将加速上涨。然而,俄罗斯和利雅得下周将再次参加欧佩克+会议,它们在向市场供应原油的问题上意见不同。

Axi全球首席全球市场策略师斯蒂芬?英尼斯(Stephen Innes)表示:“随着投资者毫不掩饰地倾向于看涨预期,石油行业的积极势头仍在继续,乐观远远多于恐惧。”

在价格方面。纽约商品交易所4月交货的西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨82美分,至每桶62.52美元。周一上涨了4.1%。3月份的合约在上涨3.8%后于周一到期。

欧洲期货交易所4月份交割的布伦特原油价格上涨1.5%,至每桶66.22美元,前一交易日上涨3.7%。

布伦特原油现货价差在看涨现货溢价结构中稳固,达到一年多来的最高水平。周二,价差升至每桶1美元以上,随后回落至96美分。相比之下,本月初为25美分。

摩根士丹利在一份报告中称,今年迄今全球石油市场每日供应不足280万桶,将布兰特原油第三季度价格预估调高至每桶70美元。高盛已将同期预估价格调高至每桶75美元,而Socar表示,未来18-24个月可能达到每桶100美元。

托克石油贸易联席主管本·卢科克(Ben Luckock)表示,市场可能低估了美国寒流的影响,2月份约有4000万桶石油产量将无法完成生产,其中大部分来自二叠纪盆地。

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下:

Oil Up with Tightening Market Boosting Outlook

Oil rose toward $63 a barrel with investment banks and traders predicting the market will tighten further and push prices higher.

Futures in New York gained 1.3% The loss of oil output after the big freeze in the U.S. will also help the market firm as much of the world emerges from lockdowns, according to Trafigura Group. Fuel flows from Asia to the U.S. have gained after the cold blast left some of the biggest refineries facing a slow and messy restart.

Oil has surged this year after Saudi Arabia pledged to unilaterally cut 1 million barrels a day in February and March, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting the rally will accelerate as demand outpaces global supply. Russia and Riyadh, however, will next week “The positive momentum continues in the oil complex, with investors unabashedly predisposed to a bullish view,” said Stephen Innes, global chief global market strategist at Axi. “There is far more optimism than fear.”

Prices

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery gained 82 cents to $62.52 a barrel The March contract expired Monday after rising 3.8%.

Brent for April settlement added 1.5% to $66.22 Brent’s prompt timespread firmed in a bullish backwardation structure to the widest in more than a year. The gap rose above $1 a barrel The global oil market has been under-supplied by 2.8 million barrels a day so far this year, Morgan Stanley said in a note, boosting its Brent forecast for the third quarter to $70 a barrel. Goldman has raised its estimate for the same period to $75, while Socar said $100 was possible in the next 18 to 24 months.

The market is likely underestimating the impact from the U.S. cold snap, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Some 40 million barrels of February oil output -- largely from the Permian Basin -- will not be produced due to the freeze, he said.

 
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