据今日油价网站1月19日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）周二表示，今年天然气价格上涨，预计将导致美国燃气发电量自2017年以来首次出现年度下降。
今年，美国电力行业天然气发电厂的发电量将下降8%左右，主要原因是预计天然气价格将大幅上涨。
2020年，天然气价格创下数十年来最低水平，交付至发电机的天然气名义价格平均为2.37美元/每百万英热单位。然而，今年EIA预计发电用天然气平均价格将飙升41%，达到平均3.35美元/每百万英热单位，与2017年的价格相似。
因此，2021年天然气发电量将比2020年有所下降，天然气在美国发电量中的份额将从2020年的39%下降到36%。
同时，根据EIA的估计，燃煤电厂的发电量在2020年每年下降20%之后，今年预计将增长14%。这是因为2021年煤炭价格预计涨幅仅为6%，而天然气价格的涨幅为41%。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
US Gas-Fired Power Generation Set For First Drop Since 2017
Higher natural gas prices this year are expected to result in the first annual decline in U.S. gas-fired electricity generation since 2017, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said This year, generation from natural gas-fired power plants in the U.S. electric power sector are set to decline by about 8 percent, largely due to an expected large rise in natural gas prices.
In 2020, natural gas prices hit their lowest in decades, with the nominal price of natural gas delivered to electric generators averaging $2.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This year, however, the EIA sees the average nominal price of natural gas for power generation surging by 41 percent to an average of $3.35/MMBtu, similar to the price in 2017.
As a result, natural gas-fired generation is set to drop in 2021 compared to 2020, and the share of natural gas of U.S. electricity generation to decline to 36 percent, down from a share of 39 percent in 2020.
At the same time, power generation from coal-fired power plants is expected to rise by 14 percent this year, after an annual drop of 20 percent in 2020, according to EIA’s estimates. That’s because the nominal rise of coal prices is expected at only 6 percent in 2021, compared to the 41-percent jump in gas prices.
