据塔斯社1月19日报道，国际能源署（IEA）预计，2021年第二季度，欧佩克+的减产幅度将放缓至580万桶/天，并在协议期限结束前（2022年4月）保持减产。
IEA表示，2021年全球石油市场供应预计将增加100万桶/天，且随着2021年下半年石油需求的复苏，全球供应可能会进一步增加。对于欧佩克+产油国来说，预计在今年第二季度，减产幅度将逐步放缓，与2018年10月相比，将减产580万桶/天，并将持续到2022年第一季度。”
该机构指出，就目前而言，生产商们似乎都在承诺保持产量稳定，转而利用价格上涨来偿还债务或提高投资者回报。如果美国页岩油产量不增长，欧佩克+国家将能够收复自2016年以来失去的市场份额。要知道，美国公司现在更关心的是债务恢复，而不是在生产增长方面的新投资。与此同时，原油价格上涨还可能激励美国页岩气行业增加产量，该行业在2020年的产量降幅最大。
王佳晶 摘译自 塔斯社
原文如下：
Global oil supply to go up by 1 mln barrels per day in 2021, says IEA
The International Energy Agency also expects easing of OPEC+ cuts to 5.8 mln barrels per day in the second quarter of 2021
Global supply Meanwhile the agency considers an additional increase in global supply possible amid recovery of oil demand in the second half of 2021.
OPEC+ countries will continue gradually easing crude production cuts to 5.8 mln barrels per day in the second quarter of 2021 and hold them by the end of the agreement’s term, meaning April 2022, according to the report.
"For OPEC+, we have assumed a gradual easing of cuts during 2Q21 to a reduction of 5.8 mb/d versus the October 2018 reference, which it holds through 1Q22," the report said.
The International Energy Agency also said that OPEC+ countries will be able to reclaim their market share lost since 2016 if shale production in the United States does not grow. American companies are now more concerned about debt recovery than new investments in production growth.
Higher crude prices could also provide an incentive to increase production by the US shale industry, which saw the biggest fall in output last year, the agency noted.
"For now though, companies seem committed to pledges made to keep production flat and instead use any price gain to pay down debt or to boost investor returns. If they stick to those plans, OPEC+ may start to reclaim the market share it has steadily lost to the US and others since 2016.
