据烃加工网1月15日报道，2020年，美国的化石燃料产量估计比2019年创纪录的81.3千万亿英热单位(Btu)下降了6%。根据美国能源信息署(EIA) 在其《2021年1月短期能源展望》中(STEO)的预测，由于煤炭产量的增加抵消了天然气产量的下降，EIA预计2021年美国化石燃料总产量将保持不变。EIA预计，所有化石燃料(原油、煤炭、干天然气和NGPL)的产量将在2022年增加，但预计化石燃料产量仍将低于2019年的峰值。
EIA的调查是以物理单位来衡量化石燃料产量，如天然气的立方英尺、原油的桶数和煤炭的短吨数。在这篇文章中，能量生产是用热含量单位来表示的，以便在不同燃料类型之间进行比较。以热含量为基础，2020年，干天然气占化石燃料生产的最大份额，为46%。原油占31%，煤炭占14%，NGPL占9%。
从上世纪80年代中期到2010年，煤炭一直是美国化石燃料生产的主要来源，但自那以后，煤炭产量已被干天然气(2011年)和原油(2015年)超过。2020年，美国从原油中生产的能源(24千万亿英热单位)是煤炭(11千万亿英热单位)的两倍，从天然气中生产的能源(35千万亿英热单位)是煤炭的三倍。
据估计，2020年美国煤炭产量将下降24%，但根据EIA的预测，2021年美国煤炭产量将增加12%，2022年将再增加4%。近年来，美国约90%的煤炭被电力行业消耗。根据EIA的预测，天然气价格的上涨预计用于发电的天然气消费量将降低，这将导致煤炭在发电中的份额增加，而风能和太阳能等可再生能源在发电中的份额将小幅增加。
据EIA估计，2020年美国NGPL产量增长7%。尽管天然气产量下降，但新启用的、更高效的天然气处理厂支持了NGPL产量的增长。EIA预计，由于乙烷产量的增长，2021年美国国内NGPL产量将增长2%，2022年将增长7%。
郝芬 译自 烃加工网
原文如下：
Fossil fuel production expected to increase through 2022 but remain below 2019 peak
In 2020, fossil fuel production in the United States declined by an estimated 6% from the 2019 record high of 81.3 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu). based EIA’s surveys measure fossil fuel production in physical units, such as cubic feet for natural gas, barrels for crude oil, and short tons for coal. In this article, energy production is expressed in heat content units to allow comparisons across fuel types. From the mid-1980s through 2010, coal was the leading source of U.S. fossil fuel production, but coal production has since been surpassed by dry natural gas (in 2011) and by crude oil (in 2015). In 2020, the United States produced twice as much energy from crude oil (24 quadrillion Btu) than coal (11 quadrillion Btu) and three times as much energy from natural gas (35 quadrillion Btu).
U.S. coal production fell by an estimated 24% in 2020, but according to EIA’s forecast, U.S. coal production will increase by 12% in 2021 and another 4% in 2022. In recent years, about 90% of U.S. coal has been consumed by the electric power sector. In EIA’s forecast, increases in natural gas prices are expected to reduce natural gas consumption for electricity generation, which will result in an increased share for coal—and to a lesser extent, an increased share for renewables such as wind and solar—in the electricity generation mix.
EIA estimates that U.S. NGPL production increased by 7% in 2020. Newly commissioned, more efficient natural gas processing plants supported growth in NGPL production even though natural gas production declined. EIA expects domestic NGPL production to increase by 2% in 2021 and by 7% in 2022 mostly because of ethane production growth.
