据安迅思新加坡1月12日消息，尽管上游原油价格不太可能出现大幅回升，但由于化工产品产量和贸易将出现显著增长，2021年海湾合作委员会(GCC)化工行业的营业收入预计将增长15-20%，从而扭转去年下降逾20%的困境。
海湾石油化工和化学品协会(GPCA)周二表示，尽管如此，2021年预计的增长仍低于新冠疫情大流行前25-30%的扩张速度。
GPCA表示，油价上涨和终端用户行业需求反弹，将推高今年GCC地区化工行业的营业收入。
GPCA调查研究专家努里亚 伊斯马吉洛娃(Nuriya Ismagilova)表示:“展望2021年，各机构的共识是，预计油价不会大幅回升，未来两年预计将在40-50美元/桶区间。”
伊斯马吉洛娃表示：“2020年，大宗化学品收入降幅最大，预计2021年将出现强劲复苏。然而，我们预计2021年GCC地区化工行业的营业收入不会回到新冠疫情大流行前的水平。”
张春晓 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
GCC chemical industry to post 15-20% revenue growth in 2021 - GPCA
The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) chemical industry is projected to post a 15-20% revenue growth in 2021, reversing the contraction of more 20% last year, The projected growth, however, is still lower than the pre-pandemic pace of expansion of 25-30%, the Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association (GPCA) said Higher oil prices and a demand rebound in end-user industries would drive up revenues this year, it said.
"When looking at 2021, consensus among agencies is that the oil price is not expected to see a dramatic recovery and is predicted to be at the $40-50[per barrel] range in the coming two years," said Nuriya Ismagilova, research and studies specialist at the GPCA.
"Commodity chemicals saw the sharpest revenue decline in 2020 and are expected to see a strong recovery next year [2021]. However, we don’t expect revenue to return to pre-pandemic levels," Ismagilova said.
