据1月7日Investing.com报道，在2020年12月初的会议上，欧佩克+同意将每年举行两次的部长级会议改为每月一次，成员国们将在会议上考虑下个月的石油产量。为此，欧佩克+于2021年1月4日召开会议，审议2月份的产量协议。
此次会议就供应协议的讨论十分激烈，俄罗斯要求欧佩克+将日产量增加50万桶，而沙特则主张保持产量稳定。
欧佩克+宣布，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦将获准在2月和3月增加7.5万桶/天的产量，这一消息令市场感到意外，而其他所有生产商都将保持产量稳定。
值得一提的是，在新闻发布会上，沙特石油部长阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹?本?萨勒曼兴高采烈地发布了一份“意外”声明，称沙特将自愿在2月和3月每日削减100万桶的石油产量。他还表示，其他阿拉伯产油国也自愿额外削减42.5万桶/天的产量。
石油市场对这一“意外”感到惊喜。布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格周二都上涨了5%左右，不过周三的涨幅很小。以下是市场观察人士应该注意的欧佩克+减产协议的4个关键影响。
一是，美国石油生产商的前景看好。
毫无疑问，沙特的“惊喜”是送给美国石油生产商的礼物。要知道，美国石油行业在2020年经历了重大整合，并取得了更大的效率提升。且一过程仍正在进行中，因此，美国的产量可能会进一步下降。然而，仍有一些公司在关键的页岩油领域生产，这些公司资金充足，能够充分利用沙特减产举措带来的油价上涨有利机会。
如果价格继续上涨，贸易商应该会看到这些公司的产量增加。这是否足以抵消美国其他产油量的下降还有待观察，但一些公司已经在考虑增加钻机数量。
二是，沙特的出口不太可能下降。
这每天100万桶的石油来自沙特阿拉伯的生产量，但沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司沙特阿美(Aramco)储存着大量石油，以确保随时满足客户的需求。沙特阿美将通过现有库存来满足任何无法通过生产来满足的订单。
值得一提的是，沙特阿美已经向其亚洲客户发布了更高的官方销售价格 (OSP)，这可能意味着，没有与沙特阿美签订长期合同的客户可能会在现货市场上寻找价格更低的石油，可能是从伊拉克或者是美国。
三是，沙特阿拉伯试图扮演一个立场摇摆的产油国。
阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹王子试图将减产决定描述为一份“礼物”，意在“先发制人”地提振市场，以防各国政府在今年1月因新冠肺炎疫情而继续实施扼杀需求的经济封锁。这反映的事实是，沙特阿拉伯现在正试图成为欧佩克+组织中立场摇摆的石油生产国，但它无法长期成功地扮演这一角色。
只有在没有其他闲置产能来替代其缺乏的供应的情况下，这一摇摆姿态才能收获成功。然而，美国、伊拉克、俄罗斯和其他国家目前仍有大量闲置产能。沙特曾在上世纪80年代尝试过这种做法，当时它削减了石油产量，试图支撑油价，但基本上都没有成功。
当时，沙特阿拉伯和沙特阿美都损失了很多钱，并因此遭受了损失。在吸取了上世纪80年代的教训后，沙特最近的石油部长阿里?纳伊米(Ali al-Naimi)和哈立德?法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)都拒绝削减本国的石油产量，除非欧佩克+成员国也都削减产量。现在，随着俄罗斯获准增产，沙特阿拉伯的大幅减产将被视为对俄罗斯的减产补偿。
这可能会为未来树立一个先例，很容易破坏欧佩克+组织的完整性。在某一时刻，沙特阿拉伯将需要停止额外减产。
四是，其他欧佩克和非欧佩克生产国更容易不遵守减产约定。
沙特阿拉伯一直在严厉打击那些在2020年生产配额过剩的国家。这包括推动各国削减产量，以补偿它们之前的减产不足。
这些补偿计划取得了一定的成功，但既然沙特阿拉伯已经表明愿意削减自己的产量，以补偿其他产油国的增产，那么它将更难迫使伊拉克和尼日利亚等国遵守减产配额。
2月份和3月份，可能会看到一些欧佩克+国家的石油产量小幅上升。欧佩克+作为一个整体，报告的减产遵守率可能会超过100%，因为沙特阿拉伯的减产将被视为超额合规。
王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com
原文如下：
Saudi Arabia’s OPEC 'Surprise' Has 4 Key Oil Market Implications
At its meeting in the beginning of December, OPEC+ agreed to shift from biannual ministerial meetings to monthly ministerial meetings at which members would consider oil output for the following month. As such, the OPEC+ group met earlier this week, The meeting was contentious. Russia pushed for OPEC+ to increase production by 500,000 bpd while Saudi Arabia advocated keeping production rates steady.
OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing that Russia and Kazakhstan would be permitted to increase their production for February and March by a total of 75,000 bpd. All other producers would keep their production rates steady.
However, at the press conference, Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, gleefully delivered a “surprise” announcement that Saudi Arabia would voluntarily cut 1 million bpd of its own production for February and March. He also referenced an additional voluntary 425,000 bpd cut from other Arab producers, but there has not been any further information The oil market was pleased with this “surprise.” Both Brent and WTI gained about 5% for the day Here are 4 key implications of this move that market watchers should note.
1. Better prospects for U.S. oil producers
There isn’t even a question that the Saudi “surprise” is a gift for U.S. frackers. The U.S. oil industry underwent significant consolidation in 2020 and made even more efficiency gains.
The process is Traders should expect to see production increases from these companies as prices rise, if they continue to rise. Whether it is enough to offset other declines in U.S. production remains to be seen, but already some companies are considering adding more rigs.
2. Saudi exports aren’t likely to drop
The 1 million bpd is coming out of Saudi Arabia’s production, but Aramco (SE:2222), Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, keeps a large amount of oil in storage at any time to make sure it can always fulfill its customer’s requests. Aramco will fill any orders that can’t be met by production through its existing inventory.
Aramco has already issued higher OSP’s (official selling prices) to its Asian customers, which could mean customers who don’t have long-term contracts with Aramco may look for lower priced oil 3. Saudi Arabia is trying to be a swing producer, but that won’t work
Prince Abdulaziz tried to spin the decision to cut production as a “gift” intended to “preemptively” bolster the market in case governments continue to impose demand-killing economic lockdowns from the coronavirus past January. However, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia is now trying to be the swing producer for OPEC+, but it cannot succeed in this role long term.
A swing producer can Saudi Arabia and Aramco both lost a lot of money at the time and suffered as a result. After learning from the 1980s, Saudi Arabia’s most recent past oil ministers, Ali al-Naimi and Khalid al-Falih, both refused to cut Saudi Arabia’s production unless everyone else in OPEC and OPEC+ cut production as well. Now, with Russia permitted to increase production, Saudi Arabia’s large cut will be seen as compensating for Russia.
This could set a precedent for the future that could easily undermine the integrity of the OPEC+ group. At some point, Saudi Arabia will need to stop trying to compensate for others.
4. Other OPEC and non-OPEC producers liable to cheat more
Saudi Arabia had been cracking down hard These compensation schemes were moderately successful, though chronic over-producers like Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq never fully adhered to their quotas. Now that Saudi Arabia has shown itself willing to cut its own production to compensate for increases by other producers, it will have an even harder time forcing countries like Iraq and Nigeria to adhere to their quotas.
It’s likely that we will see oil production inching higher from some OPEC+ countries in February and March. OPEC+ as a whole will probably report group compliance numbers of better than 100% because Saudi Arabia’s production cut will count as excess compliance.
