据12月17日FX Empire报道。美国能源信息署(EIA)刚刚发布了其每周石油报告，报告显示原油库存下降了310万桶。API原油库存变化报告预计，库存增加了200万桶，不过市场偏向于信赖EIA的报告。
与上周相比，原油进口量下降了110万桶/天，为540万桶/天。进口恢复到正常水平，这对市场有利。汽油库存增加了100万桶，考虑到汽油需求的季节性影响，这并不令人惊讶。与此同时，馏分油库存增加了20万桶。
令人惊讶的是，美国国内石油产量从1110万桶/天降至1100万桶/天。随着美国石油钻井平台数量的持续增加，这是一个非常有趣的发展趋势。如果美国国内石油产量不能在1100万桶/天的水平上增加，石油市场将获得额外的支撑。目前，判断近期油价上涨是否能提振美国产量还为时过早。
值得注意的是，美元疲软可能推动油价走高。最近几周，石油交易商关注的焦点是疫苗消息。然而，油价可能很快就会得到另一个积极的催化剂，即美元兑一篮子货币目前正在测试年度低点。美元疲软通常对以美元计价的大宗商品有利。美元指数目前正试图试探90的重要心理关口，若跌至该关口下方，可能会引发抛售，从而为油价提供额外支撑。
如果美联储扩大其资产购买计划，可能会看到整个大宗商品市场的反弹。然而，由于欧佩克+将在2021年1月份增加石油产量，且新冠肺炎疫情仍对经济带来挑战，交易员希望在年底获得一些利润，因此油价涨幅可能会受到限制。
王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire
原文如下：
Oil Pulls Back As Traders Take Some Profits Off The Table
Crude Inventories Declined By 3.1 Million Barrels
EIA has just released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report which indicated that crude inventories declined by 3.1 million barrels. Yesterday, API Crude Oil Stock Change report estimated that inventories increased by 2 million barrels but the market will certainly focus Crude oil imports declined by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week and averaged 5.4 million bpd. imports returned to more normal levels which is good for the market.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1 million barrels which is not surprising given the seasonality of gasoline demand. Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories grew by 0.2 million barrels.
Surprisingly, U.S. domestic oil production declined from 11.1 million bpd to 11 million bpd. This is a very interesting development as the number of U.S. oil rigs continues to increase.
If the U.S. domestic oil production fails to increase from the 11 million bpd level, the oil market will get additional support. At this point, it’s too early to tell whether the recent oil price upside failed to boost U.S. production but the next few weeks will show if U.S. producers reacted to the recent developments Weak U.S. Dollar May Push Oil to Higher Levels
In recent weeks, oil traders were focused Weak dollar is typically bullish for dollar-denominated commodities. The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to get to the test of the psychologically important 90 level, and a move below this level may lead to a sell-off which could provide additional support to oil.
The U.S. Fed will announce its Interest Rate Decision and provide commentary today. If the Fed expands its asset purchase program, we may see a rally across the whole commodity space.
However, oil’s gains may be limited by traders’ desire to take some profits at the end of the year as OPEC+ will increase oil production in January while the situation on the virus front remains challenging.
