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沙特阿美称全球石油需求将到2022年恢复

   2020-10-16 5590
核心提示:据能源世界网10月14日利雅得报道,沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司即沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)周二表示,全球原油需求可能会在2022年恢复到

据能源世界网10月14日利雅得报道,沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司即沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)周二表示,全球原油需求可能会在2022年恢复到新冠疫情前的水平,而国际能源署(International Energy Agency)预计,这可能至少需要一年的时间。

沙特阿美首席执行官阿明•纳赛尔(Amin Nasser)向该能源情报组织表示,石油市场上“最糟糕的时期肯定已经过去”。我的预测是有望在2022年恢复。

纳赛尔发表上述评论之际,总部位于巴黎的IEA周二预测,复苏可能需要更长的时间。

IEA称,在今年前所未有的8%降幅之后,如果疫情得到控制,全球消费量将在2023年恢复到危机前的水平。

新冠肺炎疫情导致全球经济和石油需求急剧下滑,引发全球石油需求可能已达峰值的猜测。

但是纳赛尔表示乐观,坚称全球最大的原油出口国正在复苏。

他表示,大部分需求来自发展中国家。我们看到东亚,特别是中国经济出现了大幅回升。

然而,他警告称,恢复的速度取决于是否会出现“第二波疫情,以及第二波的严重性”。

本月早些时候,欧佩克预测,未来25年,原油消费量将继续增长,这在很大程度上是由发展中国家汽车使用量增加推动的。

欧佩克的预测与包括英国石油(BP)等石油巨头在内的一些行业参与者的预测形成了鲜明对比,后者在其最新的长期估计中预测,由于可再生能源的使用增加和疫情的影响,石油需求已经达到峰值或将很快达到峰值。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下:

Global oil demand to recover by 2022: Aramco

Global demand for crude could recover to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022, Saudi Aramco said Tuesday, as the International Energy Agency projected it could take at least a year longer.

"The worst is definitely behind us" in the oil market, Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser told the Energy Intelligence group.

"My prediction is hopefully we will recover by 2022."

Nasser's comment came as the Paris-based IEA After an unprecedented eight percent drop this year, global consumption was set to return to pre-crisis levels in 2023 provided the pandemic was brought under control, the IEA said.

The Covid-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy and oil demand into a tailspin and sparked speculation that the world might have reached peak oil demand.

But Nasser voiced optimism, insisting the world's top crude exporter was seeing a recovery.

"Most of the demand comes from developing countries," he said.

"We see a big pick-up from East Asia, especially China."

He cautioned, however, that the speed of recovery depended Earlier this month, the OPEC oil cartel predicted crude consumption would continue to grow during the next quarter century, driven in large part by greater use of cars in developing countries.

OPEC's forecast contrasts with that of some industry players, including major oil firms such as BP, which in its latest long-term estimates predicted that oil demand had already peaked or would soon do so thanks to increased use of renewable energy and the impact of the virus.

 
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