据阿拉伯贸易网10月1日消息，沙特著名的金融服务提供商Al Rajhi Capital的最新报告称，沙特阿拉伯的聚合物价格在今年第二季度因疫情而大幅下跌后，目前正在稳步回升。报告指出，一旦价格回升，沙特石化行业将比全球石化行业受益更多。一些关键的聚合物产品,如低密度聚乙烯（LDPE）的价格甚至高于2019年下半年时的价格,而一些产品的价格虽然仍低于去年同期的价格，但正在回升。
该报告称:“至于2020年的收益，我们在上半年看到了相当多的减损，因此今年全年的收益不会太好，但是我们预计，随着价格的持续复苏，2021年的收益表现将较2020年出现大幅改善。虽然供需动态没有实质性改善，但我们考虑到新冠病毒疫苗的广泛接种，从明年第一、二季度起市场会逐步改善。不过我们预测PE和石脑油以及PP和丙烷之间的价差仍将远低于长期历史平均水平。”
报告指出：“鉴于聚合物产品相对防御性更强的特性，石化产品价格的上涨速度通常低于石油和原料价格上涨速度，这意味着未来石化产品的价格将逐步上涨。此外，由于石化行业现在隶属于工业和能源部，我们认为原料价格上涨的风险较低。当油价回升时，由于乙烷固定成本，沙特石化行业比全球石化行业受益更多。”
张春晓 摘译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
Saudi petchem sector Polymer prices in Saudi Arabia have been recovering steadily after dropping significantly in the second quarter (Q2) of the year due to the pandemic, a report said, adding that when prices recover, Saudi petchems would benefit more than global petchems.
Some key polymer products such as LDPE have improved even more than the price levels seen in the second half (H2) of 2019 while a few are trading slightly lower but are “As for earnings in 2020, we have seen quite a few impairments in H1 and hence we expect a much-improved earnings performance year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2021 “While the supply-demand dynamics have not materially improved, we factor a gradual improvement “Petchem prices generally increase at a relatively lesser pace compared to oil and feedstock prices, given the more relative defensive nature of polymer products, implying a gradual rise in prices in the coming periods.
“Also, with the petchem sector now coming under the Ministry of Industry and Energy, we believe there are lower risks for an increase in feedstock prices. When prices recover, Saudi petchems would benefit more than global petchems because of the operating leverage/ ethane fixed costs,” Al Rajhi Capital said in the report.
