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疫情影响下美国石油中游行业进入冬眠

   2020-07-01 3340

     据石油新闻休斯顿报道,由于疫情继续抑制全球需求和北美产量,美国中游石油行业正进入深度冬眠期,管道项目被推迟或无限期搁置。

    美国投资咨询机构晨星公司石油研究主管桑迪·菲尔登说,除了少数今年已经在顺利实施的输油管道项目外,由于油气行业削减资本支出和股息支出,并将重点放在保持现金流上,几乎所有其它输油管道项目都被推迟到2021年或2021年以后。

    菲尔登在一份新报告中称,去年和今年本应是原油管道建设创下新纪录的年份,但由于疫情的蔓延,情况在3月份迅速发生变化。菲尔登补充道,由于中游公司不想正式强调取消和延迟,所以很少有中游公司宣布,但很明显,项目的时间表已经延后了不少,有些项目将被悄悄取消。

    美国能源信息署(EIA)近日公布的统计数据显示,计划在2020年启动的管道运力里程中,迄今只完成了大约25%,主要包括从二叠纪盆地到德克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂的具有日输送60万桶原油能力的输油管道,这条管道已在今年2月建成,此外还有一些位于落基山脉地区的小型项目。

    一个建造过度国家

    美国——尤其是仍在活跃的二叠纪盆地——已从不到两年前迫切需要长途运力的页岩行业,突然转变为能源基础设施过度建造的国家。

    氏能源咨询分析公司预计,今年美国原油和凝析油平均日产量将达到1175万桶,然后在2021年降至1026万桶,到2022年略有反弹至1041万桶。

    能源投资银行Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.的中游分析师科尔顿?比恩表示,这种情况预计将在本世纪20年代中期出现,但由于疫情大流行,这种情况预计将提前出现。

    比恩说:“我们肯定是言过其实。”“大型骨干基础设施已经在美国建成。我们只是不需要长途运输基础设施。”

    美国国内少数管道项目今年仍在推进,比如企业产品合作伙伴公司在休斯顿的Midland - Echo III原油管道,但这只是因为合同和美元到位,这个项目才得以顺利进行。其他大多数管道项目要么推迟到2021年,要么无限期搁置,包括目前计划最早在2021年底竣工的Midland-Echo IV管道。

    其他项目——如普莱恩斯全美公司和MPLX公司的Capline管道反转项目,美国能源传输合作伙伴公司的达科他州接入管道扩展项目,以及菲利普斯66的Liberty、Red Oak和ACE管道的建造都将被推迟到2020年以后。

    由于巴肯页岩和其他地区产量下降,比恩为此质疑建造大部分来自俄克拉荷马州库欣北部的管道项目的必要性。

    他说:“如果这些管道项目中没有一个项目恢复,我也不会感到惊讶。”

    比恩说,简而言之,来自页岩繁荣的原油中游增长大潮现在基本上已经结束。“这不是一个令人兴奋的行业。”“你将不会看到很多引人注目的大型管道项目。”

    保持其简单性

    但无聊也不全是坏事。比恩补充称,中游企业更关注现金流和债务削减,而不是全面增长,这可能对行业的长期健康更好。

    他说:“我们将看到中游资本支出很戏剧性的下降,但这或许比死于千刀万剐要好。”

    美国著名资产管理公司Robert W. Baird & Co.的中游分析师伊森·贝拉米说,尽管企业并不准备公开这些变化,但他仍然看到了这一趋势。

    贝拉米说:“中游企业已经把可自由支配的支出削减到了最低限度。除了美国东北部的季节性天然气需求,在美国天然气产量停止下降之前,多数地区的天然气供应出现了过剩。目前的大宗商品价格显示,美国天然气产量停止下跌要到2021年年中才会出现。”

    此外,石油行业还担心,更多的联邦土地,包括二叠纪盆地的新墨西哥州部分土地,可能被禁止进行石油钻井作业,这将进一步减少对输油管道项目的需求。

    这不仅仅涉及美国的页岩管道。在墨西哥湾德克萨斯州海上建造一系列深水石油出口终端的竞赛,即使没有完全取消,也已放缓到了最慢的程度。分析师认为,目前仅有的两个特别可行的项目是Enterprise公司的SPOT项目和菲利普斯66的Bluewater终端,这两个项目的实施至少要推迟到2021年。

    此外,从加拿大到美国的输油管道项目,包括Keystone XL项目和安桥公司的3号线和5号线管道,继续面临由监管和法律问题造成的延误,而疫情大流行的影响更是雪上加霜。

    比恩说,“美国目前管道项目的数量非常少,这是因为目前可供争夺的原油产量并不多。”

    李峻 编译自 石油新闻网

    原文如下:

    US oil midstream sector enters hibernation as pandemic wreaks industry toll

    The US midstream oil sector is headed deep into a period of hibernation, with pipeline projects delayed or put     Apart from a small handful of pipelines already well underway this year, virtually every other project has been postponed to 2021 or beyond as the industry cuts capital spending and dividend payouts and focuses     Last year and 2020 were intended to be record years for crude pipeline build-outs, Fielden said in a new report "Crude pipeline developers hit the brakes," but that quickly began changing in March as the pandemic took hold. While there have been few announcements because companies don't want to formally highlight cancellations and delays, it's clear project timelines have moved back quite a bit and some will be quietly canceled, Fielden added.

    US Energy Information Administration data shows     A nation overbuilt

    The US, especially in the still-active Permian Basin, has abruptly transitioned from an industry in desperate need of long-haul capacity less than two years ago to a nation with overbuilt energy infrastructure.

    Analytics expects US crude and condensate production to average 11.75 million b/d in 2020, then drop to 10.26 million b/d in 2021 and rebound slightly to 10.41 million b/d in 2022.

    This scenario was expected to arrive by the mid-2020s but has been hastened because of the pandemic, said Colton Bean, a midstream analyst with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

    "We're certainly over-piped," Bean said. "The large, backbone infrastructure has been built out in the US. We just don't have that need for long-haul infrastructure."

    A small handful of projects are still moving forward this year, such as Enterprise Products Partners' Midland-to-ECHO III crude pipeline in Houston, but     Other projects—such as the Plains All American's and MPLX's Capline Pipeline reversal, Energy Transfer's Dakota Access Pipeline expansion, and Phillips 66's Liberty, Red Oak and ACE pipelines—are all seeing construction pushed back beyond this year, if not longer.

    As production falls in the Bakken Shale and other regions, Bean questions the need for most pipeline projects that originate north of the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub.

    "I wouldn't be surprised if none of those came back around," he said.

    Simply put, the big waves of crude midstream growth from the shale boom are now mostly over.

    "It's a less exciting industry," Bean said. "You're not going to see a lot of large splashy projects. You'll mostly need incremental processing plants and wellhead connects. We really don't have any glaring holes in the US pipeline infrastructure for the next few years out.

    "It's going to be largely gathering and processing centric."

    Keeping it simple

    But boring isn't all bad. Midstream firms focusing more     "We're going to see a pretty dramatic drop off in midstream capital spending, but it's maybe better than death by a thousand cuts," he said.

    Ethan Bellamy, a midstream analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co., sees that trend, too, even if companies aren't readily publicizing the changes.

    "Midstream has cut discretionary spending to the bone," Bellamy said. "With the exception of seasonal [natural gas] needs in the US Northeast, most regions are oversupplied until US production stops falling, which current commodity prices suggest won't be until mid-2021."

    There's also the     And it's not just US shale pipelines. The race to build a series of deepwater oil-exporting terminals offshore Texas in the Gulf of Mexico has slowed to a crawl, if not canceled altogether. The     And pipeline projects from Canada to the US, including the Keystone XL project and Enbridge's Line 3 and Line 5 pipelines, continue to face delays from regulatory and legal issues     "The number of projects is just pretty slim at this point," Bean said. "There aren't many crude volumes that are up for grabs right now."

 
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