推广 热搜: 论坛    石油  原油  管道  安全  钻井  事故  改革  中国华信 

EIA预测今明两年美国原油产量将下降

   日期:2020-05-19     浏览:246    评论:0    

据世界管道5月15日报道,据美国能源情报署(EIA)预计,2020年和2021年美国原油产量将下降,因为遏制疫情蔓延的努力将继续导致石油产品和原油价格的急剧下降。EIA在其5月短期能源展望(STEO)中预测,2020年美国原油日均产量为1,170万桶,2021年为1,090万桶。较2019年的1220万桶将分别减少50万桶和130万桶。

基准的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的现货均价从2020年1月的58美元/桶下降到3月的29美元/桶和4月的17美元/桶。油价的急剧下跌已经对美国的钻探活动产生了重大影响。截至今年2月,除GoM外,美国本土48个州的在用钻机总数为753台,但3月和4月分别降至738台和572台,为2016年5月以来的最低水平。根据贝克休斯的数据显示,截至2020年5月8日,陆地钻机数量为355台,减少48台。

EIA对原油产量的短期预测分为三个区域:不包括GoM的48个州(2019年原油产量的81%)、GpM(15%)和阿拉斯加(4%)。美国原油产量的预期变化,大多出现在除GoM产量以外的48个州,因为GoM和阿拉斯加的项目往往有不同的开发时间表,对短期价格变化不太敏感。

通常情况下,原油价格的变化会导致美国48个州的原油产量在大约6个月后发生变化。然而,目前的市场状况可能不会遵循这种关系,因为许多生产商已经宣布大幅削减资本支出和钻井水平,并计划削减产量。最近WTI价格的大部分变化将继续影响今年晚些时候和2021年全年的生产。EIA预测2021年美国原油日产量将减少80万桶,这将是有记录以来美国原油产量的最大年度降幅。

EIA预测,2020年和2021年,GoM产量将保持相对平稳,日均190万桶,与2019年的平均产量几乎持平。此外,EIA预计2020年和2021年不会取消已宣布的GoM项目。EIA预测,2020年阿拉斯加的原油日均产量将保持在46万桶,2021年将略有增加。

EIA的原油产量预测非常不确定,因为疫情缓解措施的影响仍在不断演变,并由此产生经济影响。此外,石油输出国组织欧佩克成员国和其它合作伙伴国家宣布,到2022年将大幅减产。如果减产得以实现,将影响油价和美国石油生产国的投资决策。

郝芬 译自 世界管道

原文如下:

EIA forecasts US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021 as efforts to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to result in a steep drop in demand for petroleum products and crude oil prices. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will average 11.7 million bpd in 2020 and 10.9 million bpd in 2021. These levels would be 0.5 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, respectively, lower than the 2019 average of 12.2 million bpd.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price dropped from US$58/bbl in January 2020 to US$29/bbl in March and US$17/bbl in April. This sharp decline in the oil price is already having a significant effect align="justify">EIA’s short-term forecast for crude oil production is separated into three regions: the Lower 48 states excluding GoM (81% of 2019 crude oil production), the GpM (15%), and Alaska (4%). Most of the expected changes in US crude oil production arise in changes in Lower 48 states excluding GoM production because projects in the GoM and Alaska tend to have different development timelines and are less sensitive to near-term price changes.

Typically, crude oil price changes result in changes in Lower 48 US crude oil production after approximately six months. However, current market conditions will likely not follow this relationship as many producers have already announced significant reductions in capital spending and drilling levels, as well as plans to curtail production. Much of the recent changes in the WTI price will continue to affect production later this year and throughout 2021. EIA’s forecast 0.8 million bpd decline in US crude oil production in 2021 would be the largest annual decline in US crude oil production align="justify">EIA forecasts GoM production to remain relatively flat, averaging 1.9 million bpd in 2020 and 2021, nearly unchanged from its 2019 average. In addition, EIA expects no cancellation in announced GoM projects for 2020 and 2021. EIA forecasts that crude oil production from Alaska will remain at an average of 460 000 bpd in 2020 and that it will increase slightly in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil production forecast is highly uncertain given the still-evolving impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation efforts and the resulting economic effects. In addition, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other partner countries announced significant production reductions through 2022 which, if realised, would affect oil prices and US producer investment decisions.

 

 
标签: 美国 预测 EIA 产量
打赏
 
更多>同类资讯
0相关评论

推荐图文
推荐资讯
点击排行