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液化天然气贸易增长异常迅速

   日期:2019-11-18     浏览:155    评论:0    

据海事新闻11月16日消息称,挪威液化天然气运输供应商Awilco液化天然气集团表示,2019年上半年液化天然气贸易的异常增长在第三季度仍在继续。

根据Fearnleys LNG的数据,今年前9个月的液化天然气贸易总额较去年增长了约13%。与正常的季节性模式一致,第三季度天然气价格小幅上涨,但由于远东地区产量增加和需求减弱,价格仍处于历史低位。

由于日本和韩国相对温和的冬季减少了对天然气发电的需求,而核能发电量增加,今年1月至9月,液化天然气进口同比分别下降8%和9%,而印度的进口同比增长3%,中国的进口同比增长约21%。

欧洲一直是2019年液化天然气增量的主要买家,进口量同比增长74%,至约6500吨,并利用天然气价格较低的优势,将其能源结构从煤炭转向天然气。到第三季度末,欧洲的库存水平约为97%,较冬季前库存的历史平均峰值提前了约两个月。

结果,再加上远东地区天然气价格的期货溢价,两大盆地都使用了许多液化天然气运输船作为储气库。

根据Fearnleys LNG的数据,2019年前9个月,总船运需求(以吨英里计算)增长约7%,而同期船队增长9%。

尽管当前天然气价格低迷,全球天然气价格已达到10年来的最低水平,但2019年对新液化能力的最终投资决策却创下了历史新高。

2019年共批准了6400吨/年的新产能,约占2018年液化天然气交易总量3.25亿吨/年的20%。市场上有总计1.11亿吨/年的新LNG产能正在建设中,预计将在2020年至2026年开始生产

据市场分析人士说,这是一个进一步的解决办法。8亿吨/年的新液化天然气生产处于规划的不同阶段。

2019年前9个月交付了33艘,2019年剩余时间还将交付6艘。

根据船舶经纪人的说法,当前15万立方米以上的LNG船舶(不包括FSRU和FLNG)的订单为106艘,其中约40艘可以签订合同。计划2020年交付40艘,2021年44艘,2022年16艘,2023年1艘。

曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻

原文如下:

Exceptional Growth in LNG Trade, Says Awilco

The exceptional growth in LNG trade recorded in the first half of the 2019 continued in Q3, says Awilco LNG Group, the Norwegian LNG transportation provider.

According to Fearnleys LNG total LNG trade is up about 13 % in the first nine months of the year vs last year. In line with normal seasonal patterns gas prices inched upwards in Q3 but remained historically low due to increased production and muted demand in the Far East.

Due to a relatively mild winter reducing gas demand for power generation and higher nuclear power generation in Japan and South Korea, LNG imports decreased by 8 and 9 % y-o-y Jan-Sept respectively, whereas imports to India were up 3 % and imports to China increased by about 21 % y-o-y.

Europe has been the main buyer of incremental LNG volumes in 2019, growing imports by 74 % y-o-y to about 65 MT and taking advantage of low gas prices to switch its energy mix from coal to gas. European storage levels were about 97 % full at the end of Q3, which is about two months early compared to historical average peak of pre-winter up-stocking.

As a result, and in combination with contango in gas prices in the Far East, a number of LNG carriers have been employed as storage in both basins.

Total shipping demand as expressed by growth in ton-mile increased by about 7 % in the first nine months of 2019 compared to a fleet growth of 9 % according to Fearnleys LNG.

In spite of the current low gas price environment, with global gas prices at their lowest for 10 years, 2019 has seen an all-time high in final investment decisions align="justify">A total of 64 MTPA of new capacity has been sanctioned in 2019, representing about 20 % of total LNG traded in 2018 at 325 MTPA. In total 111 MTPA of new LNG production capacity is under construction and expected to commence production in 2020 to 2026.

According to market analysts a further approx. 800 MTPA of new LNG production is in various stages of planning.

33 vessels were delivered in the first nine months of 2019 and a further 6 vessels are scheduled for delivery in the remainder of 2019.

According to shipbrokers the current orderbook for LNG vessels above 150,000 cbm (excl. FSRU and FLNG) is 106 vessels, of which about 40 are assumed available for contract. 40 vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2020, 44 in 2021, 16 in 2022 and 1 in 2023.

 

 
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