据普彭博社12月12日消息，即使油价比先前预估平均每桶低近11美元，美国政府对2019年国内原油产量的预测仍保持不变，
美国能源情报署在月度展望中表示，明年石油生产国的日均产量将从2018年的1088万桶增至1206万桶。该机构认为10月由于飓风“迈克尔”的影响，一些海上石油生产关闭，产量出现下降，直到11月开始恢复。
美国页岩气产量的迅速增长使欧佩克及其盟友为削减供应和支撑价格的努力复杂化。虽然德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地等地区的瓶颈对未来增长构成了威胁，但2019年底和2020年即将上线的新管道应该会缓解这种拥堵。明年，美国将占全球石油液体产量的近五分之一。
该机构还将其明年的全球需求预测从1.0151亿桶提高至每天1.0161亿桶。在美国，明年近一半的增长将来自天然气凝析液，汽油需求将从今年的下降中反弹。
尽管油价从10月份的高点下跌超过30％，但生产商并没有回避在美国油田投资。康菲石油周一表示，它将2019年预算的一半用于美国大陆，而雪佛龙公司仅在二叠纪盆地就投资36亿美元。
曹海斌 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
U.S. Sees Oil Production Continuing to Grow Despite Lower Prices
The U.S. government left its forecast for domestic crude production unchanged for 2019 even with prices averaging almost $11 a barrel lower than its previous estimate.
Oil producers will pump an average 12.06 million barrels a day next year, up from 10.88 million in 2018, the Energy Information Administration said in a monthly outlook. The agency saw output dropping during October, when some offshore production was shut in due to Hurricane Michael, before recovering in November.
The swift growth of American shale production has complicated efforts by OPEC and its allies to trim supply and support prices. While bottlenecks in areas such as the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico pose a risk to future growth, new pipelines coming The agency also raised its global demand forecast for next year to 101.61 million barrels a day from 101.51 million. In the U.S., almost half of the growth next year will come from gas liquids, with gasoline demand rebounding from a decline this year.
Producers aren’t shying away from spending money in U.S. fields, despite prices dropping more than 30 percent from the October highs. ConocoPhillips said Monday it’s spending half its 2019 budget in the continental U.S., while Chevron Corp. is investing $3.6 billion in the Permian Basin alone.
