据道琼斯阿布扎比11月13日消息，国际能源署(IEA)周二表示，美国页岩油气资源的快速开发将使得该国超越全球其他主要油气生产国，到2025年，美国的页岩油气新增产量可能占全球新增油气总产量的一半左右。
IEA在年度全球能源展望报告中表示，在其2040年前全球能源展望报告的主要预测中，预计未来六年美国的新增石油和天然气产量将分别占到全球新增油气产量的约75%和40%。该机构称，预计上述增长主要将由页岩油生产驱动，到2020年代中期，美国页岩油产量将增加一倍以上，达到920万桶/日。
IEA表示：“页岩革命继续撼动全球油气供应，美国有能力脱颖而出，成为全球最大的油气生产商。到2025年，全球近五分之一的石油和四分之一的天然气供应将来自美国。”
IEA在其展望报告中称，美国页岩油产量预计将在2020年代中期进入高位平台期，到2030年代最终每日将减少150万桶，原因是受到资源的限制。该报告指出，2025年之后，满足全球石油需求持续增长（尽管增长缓慢）的接力棒将逐步转交给欧佩克。
美国能源信息署（EIA）本月初表示，美国原油产量已攀升至1130万桶/日，从而令美国的原油产量与俄罗斯持平，去年俄罗斯已经超过沙特成为全球最大的原油生产国。
IEA在其核心预测中表示，2025年前全球石油需求将每日平均增长100万桶左右，之后将放缓至约25万桶/日。但该机构称，预计全球需求不会在2040年之前见顶。IEA表示，2025年前全球石油需求增长应由中国推动，2020年代末到2040年则应受到印度和中东的驱动。
与此同时，IEA表示，受更高燃油效率标准和电动汽车的崛起提振，汽车燃油的使用量将在2020年代中期达到峰值，届时石油化工产品和卡车、飞机和船舶燃油的需求将推高石油需求量。
张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
U.S. Expected to Produce Half of Global Oil and Gas Output by 2025
Relentless American shale development is set to allow the U.S. to leapfrog the world's other major oil and gas producers, with the potential for the country to account for roughly half of global crude and natural growth by 2025, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s, the agency said.
"The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world's largest oil and gas producer," said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations U.S. shale oil production is expected to plateau in the mid-2020s, the IEA said in its central outlook scenario, ultimately falling by 1.5 million barrels a day in the 2030s as a result of resource constraints. After 2025, the report noted, the "baton gradually passes to OPEC to meet continued -- albeit slowing -- growth in global oil demand."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said earlier this month that U.S. crude production had climbed to 11.3 million barrels a day. That would put the U.S. The IEA said its central scenario foresees the world's appetite for oil to grow by around At the same time, the IEA said oil use for car fuel should peak in the mid-2020s -- due to stronger fuel efficiency standards and the rise of electric vehicles -- with demand then driven by petrochemicals, and fuel for trucks, planes and ships.
