据普氏能源资讯11月7日休斯敦消息称，因今年PE进入典型的去库存季，且在国内需求疲弱和全球市场看跌的情况下，美国线性低密度聚乙烯现货价格处于近10年来的低位，美国似乎准备保持甚至进一步走软。
在全球范围内，PE是塑料制造中最常用的树脂。在今年下半年的大部分时间里，美国PE价格一直承受着压力，线型低密度聚乙烯自7月2日以来跌幅最大，下跌18.1％，周二FAS休斯敦市场价收于948美元/吨。根据普氏数据显示，这是自2009年5月20日以来的最低水平，当时FAS休斯敦市场评估报价为937美元/吨。
线型低密度聚乙烯通常被描述为可用性最丰富，其定价水平非常低，以至于经常与低密度PE混合使用，因此PE市场承受巨大压力并出现了类似的价格下降。
普氏数据显示，周二低密度PEFAS休斯敦市场价收于1058美元/吨，H2下跌至16.6％，目前估值为2016年2月12日以来的最低点。一位美国贸易商最近表示：“11月和12月对美国生产商来说将是一个挑战。”
“美国的市盈率可能会在11月的头两周出现大幅回调。”
由于美国产能扩张导致国内需求疲软，其他品级PE的出口价格也大幅下跌，在11月份创下了多年未见的低点。
根据市场反馈显示，11月和12月通常是美国生产商和贸易商的去库存月，这些生产商和贸易商希望在年底之前转移树脂，而不是对库存纳税。这种动力通常表现为较低的定价，2017年所受影响因飓风哈维对美国墨西哥湾沿岸的PE工厂和物流的持久影响而减弱。
普氏能源资讯数据显示，截至11月初至12月底，2017年LDPE出口价格下跌6.8％，而2016年同期则下跌10.5％。普氏数据显示，2017年最后两个月线型低密度聚乙烯价格下跌7.1％，而2016年同期下跌11.1％。目前的市场状况显示出类似的定价趋势。在美国产能扩张达到新高之际，这些影响正在趋同，导致一些市场参与者对前景特别悲观。
消息人士称，近期亚洲价格走软也开始对美国市场构成压力，而且这种趋势可能会在能源和原料价格下跌以及季节性消费放缓的情况下持续下去。
普氏能源资讯数据显示，自10月3日ICE布伦特原油价格达到2018年高点以来，截至周二收盘时，ICE布伦特原油价格已下跌16.4％，同时NYMEX评估较同期下跌18.6％。
与此同时，普氏数据显示，亚洲PE原料乙烯的价格从10月3日到本周二下了24.6％。
另一家美国分销商表示：“亚洲乙烯价格几乎相当于石脑油价格，这意味着未来几周PE价格将大幅下跌。”
曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下：
US export PE prices enter annual destocking season at near 10-year lows
US export pricing for spot volumes of linear low density polyethylene sits at a near 10-year low as it enters the typical destocking season this year and appears poised to hold -- or even soften further -- amid weak domestic demand and bearish global markets.
On a global scale, PE is the most commonly used resin in plastic manufacturing. PE pricing has been under pressure in the US for much of the second half of the year, with butene-grade LLDPE declining the most since July 2, by 18.1% to close at $948/mt FAS Houston Often described as the most abundant in availability, LLDPE butene has reached pricing levels so low that low-density PE -- which it is regularly blended with by film manufacturers -- has begun to feel that pressure and show similar price declines.
Low-density PE pricing closed Tuesday at $1,058/mt FAS Houston, to put the H2 decline at 16.6%, with the current assessment at its lowest point since February 12, 2016, Platts data shows. "November and December are going to be a challenge for US producers," a US-based trader said recently. "
"A big US PE correction is likely to happen in the first two weeks of November."
Export pricing for other grades of PE has also dropped off considerably to enter November at lows not seen in years, pressured by weak domestic demand amid US capacity expansion.
November and December typically serve as destocking months for US producers and traders looking to move resin by year end rather than pay taxes LDPE export pricing in 2017 fell 6.8% between the beginning of November and the end of December, while the same period in 2016 saw a decline of 10.5%, according to Platts data. LLDPE butene fell 7.1% during the final two months of 2017 after the same period in 2016 produced a decline of 11.1%, Platts data shows. Current market conditions point to similar pricing tendencies. That those influences are converging at a time when US production is reaching new highs in capacity expansions is leading to a particularly bearish outlook from some market players.
Recent softening in Asian pricing has also begun to exert pressure Since the US energy complex reached 2018 highs Asian pricing for PE feedstock ethylene, meanwhile, weakened by 24.6% from October 3 through Tuesday, Platts data shows.
"Asia ethylene prices are almost at the cost of naphtha, which means PE prices will drop sharply in the coming weeks," another US-based distributor said.
