据普氏能源资讯丹佛10月22日消息称，美国东北部的初冬寒流将使波士顿和纽约的气温在本周晚些时候接近冰点，可能将天然气需求和价格推升至去年4月以来的最高水平。
根据美国国家气象局的预测，在下周季节性秋季气温回升之前，本周四至周五的天气将达到最冷程度。
根据普氏分析的数据，尽管这一寒流持续时间不长，但预计这一寒流将使美国东北部地区的民用天然气需求提升至超过127亿立方英尺/日，这是自早春以来的最高水平。
包括该地区发电企业的天然气需求小幅上涨在内，东北地区的天然气总消费量预计将达到221亿立方英尺/日，这可能会提升市场区域的天然气价格。在周一的交易中，波士顿阿冈昆城门的现货市场与上周五的结算价格保持不变，为3.33美元/ MMBtu。根据洲际交易所的初步结算数据，在纽约Transco Zone 6区，价格上涨约11美分/ MMBtu至3.22美元/ MMBtu。
去年冬天，东北地区的需求水平显着高于200亿立方英尺/日，这与阿冈昆的价格高于4美元/ MMBtu相关，这表明该区域可能会在本周中面临上行压力。
在Transco Zone 6区，4美元/ MMBtu天然气的区域需求门槛显着提高，接近300亿立方英尺/天。然而，在最近横贯大陆天然气管道6区天然气供应量增加之后，这个门槛可能会今年冬天比去年更高。
最近Transco公司17亿立方英尺/天的Atlantic Sunrise扩建项目的启动大大推动了6区市场的天然气供应，这得益于管道主线的产能不成比例的扩张。
普氏统计分析估计，在启动后的10天内，6区（包括马里兰、弗吉尼亚州边界以北的交付点）的天然气均量与之前的30天相比平均增长了7亿立方英尺/天。虽然该地区的贸易顺差已经下降了约1.5亿立方英尺/日，但这一扩张可能会对今年冬季6区的价格产生持久影响，尤其是在Transco的非纽约枢纽。
6区的长期供应增加是由于大西洋日出项目的设计。
在新建管道的末端，对Transco主干线的改造允许项目每天可以向南输送12亿立方英尺的天然气，其中8.50 亿立方英尺/天的量规定至阿拉巴马州的85号站点，另外3.5亿立方英尺/日规定至马里兰州的Cove Point管道。
但该项目总产能为17亿立方英尺/日，该项目现在在6区市场区域的日产量增加了5亿立方英尺，这可能会使今年冬季价格保持在较低水平。
随着第6区的天然气供应的增加，东北部地区天然气需求可能需要大幅超过300亿立方英尺/日的水平，以推动Transco6区纽约价格超过4美元/ MMBtu，从而将第5区的供应进一步向北推进。
陈菲 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下：
Winter temps to lift New England gas demand, prices
An early winter chill in the US Northeast will see temperatures in Boston and New York approach freezing by later this week, potentially lifting gas demand and prices to their highest since last April.
According to a US National Weather Service forecast, conditions should reach their coldest from Thursday to Friday, before more seasonal autumn-like temperatures return by next weekend.
Although short-lived, the cold spell is expected to lift residential-commercial gas demand in the Northeast to over 12.7 Bcf/d, or its highest since early spring, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
Including a modest uptick in gas demand from the region's power generators, total Northeast consumption is forecast to hit 22.1 Bcf/d, potentially lifting gas prices at market-area hubs. In Monday trading, the cash market at Boston's Algonquin city-gates was unchanged from Friday's settlement at $3.33/MMBtu. At New York's Transco Zone 6, prices were up about 11 cents/MMBtu to $3.22/MMBtu, according to preliminary settlement data from Intercontinental Exchange.
Last winter, Northeast demand levels significantly above 20 Bcf/d were typically correlated with prices above $4/MMBtu at Algonquin, suggesting that the hub could see upward pressure by mid-week.
At Transco Zone 6, the regional demand threshold for $4/MMBtu gas was significantly higher -- closer to about 30 Bcf/d. Following the recent increase in Zone 6 gas supply The recent startup of Transco's 1.7 Bcf/d Atlantic Sunrise expansion has significantly boosted gas supply in the Zone 6 market area, thanks to a disproportionate expansion in capacity down the pipe's mainline.
In the 10 days immediately following its startup, Platts Analytics estimated that the gas balance in Zone 6, which includes delivery points north of the Maryland-Virginia border, grew by an average 700 MMcf/d compared with 30 days prior. While that surplus has since declined by about 150 MMcf/d, the expansion is likely to have an enduring impact The longer-term increase in Zone 6 supply comes as a consequence of the Atlantic Sunrise project's design.
At the terminus of the greenfield pipeline, modifications to Transco's mainline allow 1.2 Bcf/d from the project to flow southbound, with 850 MMcf/d of that volume contracted to station 85 in Alabama and another 350 MMcf/d contracted to the Cove Point Pipeline in Maryland.
But with a total capacity of 1.7 Bcf/d, the project now leaves an incremental volume of up to 500 MMcf/d in the Zone 6 market area, which is likely to keep prices there lower this winter.
With additional supply in Zone 6, it's plausible that regional Northeast gas demand would need to move significantly above the 30 Bcf/d level to push Transco Zone 6 New York prices to more than $4/MMBtu, pulling Zone 5 supply farther north into the region.
